St. Joseph Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 21 20 41
2 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 25 18 43
3 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 29 23 52
4 Black River Public School Black River Public School JV 20 32 52
5 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 37 36 73
6 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 47 45 92
7 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 45 50 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School JV 6 1 4 2 1 2 3 1 20 Lj Nykamp '25 [1-8]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonas Pearson '25 [3-4]
Tj Vandermeer '25 [7-8]
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 5 3 1 1 4 4 1 2 21 Greta Traver '23 [1-8]
Kylie Smits '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lily Johnson '23 [3-4, 7-8]
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 2 2 5 7 3 1 2 3 25 Caitlin Derby '22
George Dalman '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 1 4 3 3 6 3 5 4 29 Dylan Marzke '20
Silas Lorenz '23
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 4 5 2 4 2 6 7 7 37 Owen Steger '21
Noah Sippel '22
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 45 Jackson Macnaughton '22 [1-8]
Owen Macnaughton '24 [1-2, 5-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [3-4]
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 3 6 7 5 7 7 6 6 47 Andrew Barazotto '23
John Hirsh '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 5 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 18 Joshua Elwood '21
Carson Dobb '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 3 1 2 1 5 4 2 2 20 Amelia Traver '24 [1-8]
Aiden Hollebeek '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Lauren Siegers '21 [3-4, 7-8]
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 2 2 1 3 3 6 3 3 23 Nolan Youngstedt '21
Tyler Meier '21
Black River Public School Black River Public School JV 1 5 7 4 2 3 5 5 32 Alden Gort '22 [1-8]
Tj Vandermeer '25 [1-4]
Jonas Pearson '25 [5-6]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [7-8]
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 6 4 3 6 7 2 4 4 36 Ben Walters '20
Whitaker Oosterman '21
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 4 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 45 John Norland '23
Claire Norland '20
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 7 7 5 7 4 7 7 6 50 Drew Keil '22 [1-8]
Ethan Woudwyk '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School JV11335577
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold22446611
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles33557722
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroons44661133
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed66113355
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity55772244
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Panthers77224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School JV22446611
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold33557722
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles44661133
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroons55772244
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed77224466
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity66113355
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Panthers11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Black River Public School Black River Public School Lj Nykamp '25 [1-8] Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonas Pearson '25 [3-4]
Tj Vandermeer '25 [7-8]
JV Alden Gort '22 [1-8] Tj Vandermeer '25 [1-4]
Jonas Pearson '25 [5-6]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [7-8]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Jackson Macnaughton '22 [1-8] Owen Macnaughton '24 [1-2, 5-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [3-4]
EGR Varsity Gold Drew Keil '22 [1-8] Ethan Woudwyk '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [5-6]
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Owen Steger '21 Noah Sippel '22
Fast Eagles Ben Walters '20 Whitaker Oosterman '21
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Greta Traver '23 [1-8] Kylie Smits '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lily Johnson '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Maroons Amelia Traver '24 [1-8] Aiden Hollebeek '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Lauren Siegers '21 [3-4, 7-8]
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Andrew Barazotto '23 John Hirsh '23
Bears- Mixed John Norland '23 Claire Norland '20
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Dylan Marzke '20 Silas Lorenz '23
Bears- Varsity Nolan Youngstedt '21 Tyler Meier '21
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Caitlin Derby '22 George Dalman '22
Panthers Joshua Elwood '21 Carson Dobb '24

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1011.7 hPa

Temperature

86°F
↑ 94°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover42% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1011.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Joseph: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Joseph by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at St. Joseph, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →