VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Team 2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 5 9 14
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 8 14
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 13 7 20
4 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 12 16 28
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 13 16 29
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 23 11 34
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 18 22 40
8 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 20 21 41
9 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 30 30 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 3 1 5 Jaxon Parker Searcy '22
Cindy Wang '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 1 2 6 Jeff Elkin '20
Peyton Smith '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 5 4 3 12 Gavin Smith '21
Alexandra Smith '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 4 5 4 13 Chase Brewer '22
Ava Michel '22
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 6 2 5 13 Jennifer Permenter '21
Elaina Tenfelde '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 DNF 6 18 Kiana Beachy '24
Michael Polsinelli '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 7 6 7 20 Henry Mayer '23 [1, 3]
Peyton Mcdonald '23 [2]
Peyton Mcdonald '23 [1, 3]
Henry Mayer '23 [2]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 8 7 8 23 Charlie Li '20
Jacob Osias '21
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity DNS DNS DNS 30 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 2 4 7 Paul Trudell '22
Lydia Sweeney '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 4 2 8 Anne Jensen '21
Moseley Davidson '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 7 1 1 9 Clare Elden '21
Francesca Penati '22
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 3 5 3 11 Wally Yu '21 [1-3]
Magnus Henneberger '21 [1-2]
Julia Quevedo '23 [3]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 4 7 5 16 Ashlyn Wise '21 [1-3]
Emery Hill '23 [1-2]
Grace Waltington '22 [3]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 6 3 7 16 Ryan Nguyen '20
Mallory Soter '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 5 8 8 21 Jordan Bayliss '22
Sarah Graves '22
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks DSQ 6 6 22 Mary Archer Connors '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Mccoy '24 [3]
Jackson Delanty '23 [1]
Charlotte Mccoy '24 [2]
Jake Fowler '22 [3]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity DNS DNS DNS 30 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 4444
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors666
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs777
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks888
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders999

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 4444
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors666
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs777
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks888
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders999

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1023.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.34 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →