Mobile Bay HS Series #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 7 7
2 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 7 7
3 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 14 14
4 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 14 14
5 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 21 21
6 UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 21 21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 1 3 1 2 7 Nate Hartwell '24
Ethan Agerton '24
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 2 2 2 1 7 Chandler Taloney '23
Layton Dugger '25
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 3 4 3 4 14 Gavin Valentine '22
Elijah Healy '22
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 6 1 4 3 14 Reed Carpenter '23
Cooper Kupp '25
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 4 6 5 6 21 Robert Montgomery '22
Austin Gontarski '24
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 5 5 6 5 21 Isabelle Gautier '22
Payton Offerley '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Blue3333
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Gold31313131
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red4444
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White6666
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity5555
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA1111

Conditions — 09/27/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fairhope Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.74 ± 0.46)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fairhope Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Fairhope Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →