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Sunday Races

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1 9 8 17
2 Lincoln Park High School Lincoln Park High School Varsity 7 30 37
3 Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 19 20 39
4 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 1 23 19 42
5 Whitney Young Whitney Young Dolphins 14 33 47
6 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 30 20 50
7 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 2 33 19 52
8 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 41 15 56
9 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Mixed 25 33 58
10 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 31 29 60
11 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Mixed 32 38 70
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 18888
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 29999
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Mixed10101010
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars1111
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 12222
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 23333
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Mixed5555
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity4444
Lincoln Park High SchoolLincoln Park High School Varsity6666
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions7777
Whitney YoungWhitney Young Dolphins11111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 18888
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 29999
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Mixed10101010
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars1111
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 12222
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 23333
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Mixed5555
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity4444
Lincoln Park High SchoolLincoln Park High School Varsity6666
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions7777
Whitney YoungWhitney Young Dolphins11111111

Conditions — 09/20/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1030.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From SE (136°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1030.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →