Breeze: NE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fenwick/
Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young:
a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.45 ± 0.20)
Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0).
Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected.
Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of
±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.
The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s
pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising.
The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing.
How this is estimated ·
compare venues.
Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface;
dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young: the all-venue pattern is shown).
