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2021-22 PCISA SoCal 3 Gold

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Parker Parker Parker 2 23 23
2 Parker Parker Parker 1 24 24
3 Parker Parker Parker 3 27 27
4 Parker Parker Parker 6 32 32
5 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1 33 33
6 Parker Parker Parker 4 41 41
7 La Jolla Country Day School La Jolla Country Day School Torreys 45 45
8 Parker Parker Parker 5 46 46
9 Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 2 52 52
10 Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 1 54 54
11 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 59 59
12 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 61 61
13 Bishop's School Bishop's School Knights 71 71
14 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2 72 72
15 Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 3 81 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Parker Parker Parker 2 7 2 1 9 2 2 23 Garrett Henderson '23
Dominic Ciccimaro '25
Parker Parker Parker 1 2 3 3 5 4 7 24 Joey Richardson '24
Noelle Yuen '25
Parker Parker Parker 3 4 10 2 1 1 9 27 Ava Gustafson '24
Annika Baumgartner '24
Parker Parker Parker 6 9 1 9 2 8 3 32 Charlotte Plant '24
Fenja Bahrenburg '25
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1 3 9 6 7 3 5 33 Caleb Everett '25
Hannah Crompton '26
Parker Parker Parker 4 10 6 12 3 9 1 41 Shea Mcgrath '23
Samantha Katz '24
La Jolla Country Day School La Jolla Country Day School Torreys 1 15 7 6 6 10 45 Oscar Parzen '26
No Show
Parker Parker Parker 5 15 5 4 4 12 6 46 Patrick Henderson '23
Niko Beros '25
Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 2 5 4 10 15 5 13 52 Josh Kozak '25
No Show
Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 1 6 12 5 10 7 14 54 Sarah Ozaki '25
Adelaide Hall '23
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 8 8 14 14 11 4 59 Julia Getter '26
Michael Sentovich '26
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 11 7 8 13 14 8 61 Conrad Cook '25
Kathi Keller '24
Bishop's School Bishop's School Knights 13 11 13 8 10 DNF 71 Ethan Chuang '22
Alex Yang '23
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2 12 13 11 12 13 11 72 Jasmine Dandler '28
Vance Khamsi '27
Mission Bay High School Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 3 14 14 15 11 15 12 81 Jonah Molina '25
Elliot Getz '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Corona del Mar High SchoolCorona del Mar High School Sea Kings151515151515
ParkerParker Parker 1777777
ParkerParker Parker 2888888
ParkerParker Parker 3161616161616
ParkerParker Parker 4999999
ParkerParker Parker 5444444
ParkerParker Parker 6666666
La Jolla Country Day SchoolLa Jolla Country Day School Torreys333333
Mater Dei High SchoolMater Dei High School MONARCHS 1111111
Mater Dei High SchoolMater Dei High School MONARCHS 2141414141414
Mission Bay High SchoolMission Bay High School Buccaneer 1101010101010
Mission Bay High SchoolMission Bay High School Buccaneer 2212121212121
Mission Bay High SchoolMission Bay High School Buccaneer 3222222
Newport Harbor High SchoolNewport Harbor High School Sailors131313131313
Bishop's SchoolBishop's School Knights555555

Conditions — 12/12/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 12.1 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1016.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Francis Parker: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.28 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Francis Parker by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Francis Parker, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →