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Disney Celebration Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey 12 12
2 Pioneer High School Pioneer High School MIXED 15 15
3 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 27 27
4 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 28 28
5 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 30 30
6 Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Black 38 38
7 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 50 50
8 Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy MIXED Gold 58 58
9 Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Colts 61 61
10 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Lakers 64 64
11 Groves High School Groves High School Falcons 68 68
12 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 74 74
13 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 74 74
14 Rochester Adams High School Rochester Adams High School MIXED Gold 78 78
15 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks 81 81
16 Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 85 85
17 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 100 100
18 Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 107 107
19 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 109 109
20 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White 113 113
21 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins 116 116
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey 1 4 2 1 3 1 12 Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-6]
Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [4]
Pioneer High School Pioneer High School MIXED 2 1 5 2 2 3 15 Jacob Doll '22
Himani Yarlagadda '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 5 3 4 5 5 5 27 Gillian Bellard '25
Paige Gilbert '26
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 11 5 1 4 1 6 28 Kellan Knapp '25
Griffin Wilcox '25
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue 13 2 6 3 4 2 30 Aarush Kapur '25 [1-6]
Nadiyah Tarver '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Isha Ummadi '27 [3-4]
Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Black 10 7 3 6 8 4 38 Diego Kittinger '24
Valentino Orsini '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 9 6 10 12 6 7 50 Sydney Porter '24 [1-6]
Paige Gilbert '26 [1]
Jacob Vasicek '23 [2-5]
Griffin Wilcox '25 [6]
Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy MIXED Gold 3 12 12 8 13 10 58 Pascual Noriega '25
Alex Fox '27
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Colts 4 11 13 9 9 15 61 Jacob Ritter '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Maya Nagy '26 [3-4]
Maya Nagy '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Ritter '24 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Lakers 6 9 11 15 11 12 64 Alex Wszolek '25
Cameron Rocco '24
Groves High School Groves High School Falcons 7 18 7 10 10 16 68 Caden Meyers '22
Gwen Rauscher '23
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 8 15 20 13 7 11 74 Quinn Elliott '26
Teddy Mayotte '25
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon 14 19 9 7 12 13 74 Jamie Stewart '27
Anusha Reddy '24
Rochester Adams High School Rochester Adams High School MIXED Gold 12 8 14 17 18 9 78 Nahil Edrisinha '26
Luca Orsini '27
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks 15 10 8 14 15 19 81 Marko Nedeljkovic '24
Mayas Smith '25
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange 19 17 16 11 14 8 85 Zachary Ring '24
Isabella Elzon '27
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 17 13 17 18 21 14 100 Brooks Barron '26
Arda Sarioglu '27
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 20 14 15 20 17 21 107 Bella Satterfield '24
Jaclyn Scott '23
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 16 DSQ 19 16 19 17 109 Keegan Mccormick '22
Joseph Mcloughlin '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White 18 16 18 21 20 20 113 Adam Vaughn '26
Levi Citron '26
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins DNF 20 21 19 16 18 116 Matthew Schmidt '23
Alexander Grabowski '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples666666
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon444444
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks151515151515
Bloomfield Hills High SchoolBloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange111111
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Blue171717171717
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Gold181818181818
Everest Collegiate High School & AcademyEverest Collegiate High School & Academy Black222222
Everest Collegiate High School & AcademyEverest Collegiate High School & Academy MIXED Gold161616161616
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED888888
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED101010101010
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey999999
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet777777
Groves High SchoolGroves High School Falcons121212121212
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins141414141414
Pioneer High SchoolPioneer High School MIXED131313131313
Rochester Adams High SchoolRochester Adams High School MIXED Gold555555
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Colts111111111111
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Red131313131313
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Lakers333333
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples Quinn Elliott '26 Teddy Mayotte '25
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maroon Jamie Stewart '27 Anusha Reddy '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks Marko Nedeljkovic '24 Mayas Smith '25
Bloomfield Hills High School Bloomfield Hills High School MIXED Orange Zachary Ring '24 Isabella Elzon '27
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue Aarush Kapur '25 [1-6] Nadiyah Tarver '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Isha Ummadi '27 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold Brooks Barron '26 Arda Sarioglu '27
Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Black Diego Kittinger '24 Valentino Orsini '25
Everest Collegiate High School & Academy Everest Collegiate High School & Academy MIXED Gold Pascual Noriega '25 Alex Fox '27
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED Gillian Bellard '25 Paige Gilbert '26
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED Sydney Porter '24 [1-6] Paige Gilbert '26 [1]
Jacob Vasicek '23 [2-5]
Griffin Wilcox '25 [6]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-6] Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-3, 5-6]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [4]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet Kellan Knapp '25 Griffin Wilcox '25
Groves High School Groves High School Falcons Caden Meyers '22 Gwen Rauscher '23
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MIXED MUDJkins Matthew Schmidt '23 Alexander Grabowski '25
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ Keegan Mccormick '22 Joseph Mcloughlin '24
Pioneer High School Pioneer High School MIXED Jacob Doll '22 Himani Yarlagadda '23
Rochester Adams High School Rochester Adams High School MIXED Gold Nahil Edrisinha '26 Luca Orsini '27
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Colts Jacob Ritter '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Maya Nagy '26 [3-4]		 Maya Nagy '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Ritter '24 [3-4]
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red Bella Satterfield '24 Jaclyn Scott '23
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Lakers Alex Wszolek '25 Cameron Rocco '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White Adam Vaughn '26 Levi Citron '26

Conditions — 10/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From WSW (239°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1017.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/Rochester Adams/West Bloomfield: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.66 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/Rochester Adams/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Detroit Country Day/Rochester Adams/West Bloomfield: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →