Foundry Fall Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 11 8 19
2 Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 1 11 12 23
3 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 24 16 40
4 Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 2 23 26 49
5 Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 23 38 61
6 Hathaway Brown School Hathaway Brown School Mixed 34 30 64
7 University School (OH) University School (OH) Mixed 44 44 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1 3 3 2 1 1 11 Eric Pohl '22
Charles Pohl '22
Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 11 Jack Vanderhorst '22
James Kelly '24
Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 2 4 6 4 3 3 3 23 Jonathan Mack '22
Joe Sharpnack '22
Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 6 4 1 4 4 4 23 Daniel Van Heeckeren '22
Cooper Ryan '26
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 2 2 5 5 5 5 24 Jacob Myers '24
Rider Myers '26
Hathaway Brown School Hathaway Brown School Mixed 5 5 6 6 6 6 34 Lee Mcbride '23
Rachel Blumin '24
University School (OH) University School (OH) Mixed 7 7 7 7 DNS DNS 44 Charles Shade '25
Dawson Steffy '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats 1 2 1 2 1 1 8 Adam Starck '25
Joe Lavelle '23
Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 12 Ellen Petrigan '22
Annika Vanderhorst '23
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 2 3 3 3 2 3 16 Buck Rathbun '24
Reese Levinson '25
Bay High School Bay High School Rockets 2 4 5 5 4 4 4 26 Noah Scholtz '25
Molly Keane '26
Hathaway Brown School Hathaway Brown School Mixed 5 4 6 5 5 5 30 Annette Breton '22
Cole Wallace '25
Hawken School Hawken School Hawks 7 7 4 6 6 DNS 38 Fletcher Allyn '23
Mac Mcmillan '22
University School (OH) University School (OH) Mixed 6 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS 44 Dawson Steffy '25
Brendan Callahan '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bay High SchoolBay High School Rockets 1113355
Bay High SchoolBay High School Rockets 2224466
Hathaway Brown SchoolHathaway Brown School Mixed335577
Hawken SchoolHawken School Hawks446611
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates557722
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats661133
University School (OH)University School (OH) Mixed772244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bay High SchoolBay High School Rockets 1224466
Bay High SchoolBay High School Rockets 2335577
Hathaway Brown SchoolHathaway Brown School Mixed446611
Hawken SchoolHawken School Hawks557722
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates661133
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OHSt. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats772244
University School (OH)University School (OH) Mixed113355

Conditions — 10/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 28.6 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1016.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bay/Hathaway Brown/Rocky River/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH): a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.39 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bay/Hathaway Brown/Rocky River/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH) by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bay/Hathaway Brown/Rocky River/St. Edward/St. Ignatius (OH), so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →