Great Lakes Qualifier - Traverse City

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 30 14 44
2 Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 26 29 55
3 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 36 39 75
4 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 51 31 82
5 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 56 31 87
6 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 34 54 88
7 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 42 49 91
8 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 44 47 91
9 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 35 63 98
10 Troy High School Troy High School Varsity 57 41 98
11 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 53 66 119
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 6 1 1 1 5 4 8 26 Lj Nykamp '25 [1-7]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2, 7]
Anneke Hackney '25 [3-6]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1 3 2 DSQ 7 1 4 30 Gavin Webster '24
Colin Hexter '23
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 4 2 3 2 6 8 9 34 Owen Bannasch '22
Declan Mcgrath '23
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3 5 8 5 4 9 1 35 Liam Hounsell '23 [1-7]
Miles Laker '23 [1-6]
Skylar Mcquire '25 [7]
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 2 DSQ 5 4 2 6 5 36 Greta Traver '23
Lily Johnson '23
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 10 7 4 7 1 2 11 42 Michael Mullins '23
Nate Bacheller '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 11 6 6 6 3 10 2 44 Ella Beck '22
Alex Reynolds '24
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 9 8 7 3 10 11 3 51 Aaron Wang '25 [1-7]
Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-2]
Jack Harman '23 [3-7]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 5 9 10 10 8 5 6 53 Walter Paliga '22
Jack Armstrong '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 8 4 9 9 9 7 10 56 Colin Gordon '22
Grace Vanstratt '27
Troy High School Troy High School Varsity 7 10 11 8 11 3 7 57 Dane Greenwood '23 [1-7]
Monika Torkos '23 [1-4, 7]
Sophia Worden '23 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 4 2 1 2 2 2 1 14 Braden Vogel '23
Grant Corrion '22
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 2 4 3 3 10 4 3 29 Alden Gort '22
Jonas Pearson '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 1 1 4 1 5 10 9 31 Lucas Rodenroth '24 [1-7]
Simon Hegg '24 [1-4]
Case Brooks '24 [5-7]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 3 5 5 5 6 5 2 31 Charlie Gonzalez '23
Gunnar Dudlar '23
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 9 6 2 8 1 9 4 39 Amelia Traver '24
Hanan Lomax '25
Troy High School Troy High School Varsity OCS 3 8 4 3 3 8 41 Rodrigo Flores '24
Nicole Torkos '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 8 7 6 11 4 1 10 47 Andrew Godmer '22
Cameron Keillor '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 10 8 7 6 7 6 5 49 Luke Strickland '22
Declan Smith '23
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 6 9 10 7 8 8 6 54 John Riordan '22
Andrew Riordan '24
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 5 10 11 9 9 OCS 7 63 Joseph Fisher '24 [1-4]
George Piceu '24 [5-6]
Miles Laker '23 [7]
George Piceu '24 [1-4]
Joseph Fisher '24 [5-6]
Andy Zhu '23 [7]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 7 11 9 10 11 7 11 66 Ethan Gulati '22 [1-4]
Brent Armstrong '25 [5-7]
Brent Armstrong '25 [1-2]
Ian Phipps '25 [3-4, 7]
Ethan Gulati '22 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Varsity779911112
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity1133557
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity2244668
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue3355779
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity44668810
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils55779911
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon668810101
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black881010113
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green991111224
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Varsity101011335
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity111122446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Varsity881010113
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity2244668
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity3355779
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue44668810
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity55779911
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils668810101
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon779911112
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black991111224
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green101011335
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Varsity111122446
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Michael Mullins '23 Nate Bacheller '24
Varsity Luke Strickland '22 Declan Smith '23
Black River Public School Black River Public School Lj Nykamp '25 [1-7] Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2, 7]
Anneke Hackney '25 [3-6]
Varsity Alden Gort '22 Jonas Pearson '25
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 Declan Mcgrath '23
BRM Varsity John Riordan '22 Andrew Riordan '24
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Aaron Wang '25 [1-7] Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-2]
Jack Harman '23 [3-7]
Blue Charlie Gonzalez '23 Gunnar Dudlar '23
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liam Hounsell '23 [1-7] Miles Laker '23 [1-6]
Skylar Mcquire '25 [7]
Varsity Joseph Fisher '24 [1-4]
George Piceu '24 [5-6]
Miles Laker '23 [7]
George Piceu '24 [1-4]
Joseph Fisher '24 [5-6]
Andy Zhu '23 [7]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gavin Webster '24 Colin Hexter '23
Blue Devils Braden Vogel '23 Grant Corrion '22
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Greta Traver '23 Lily Johnson '23
Maroon Amelia Traver '24 Hanan Lomax '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Colin Gordon '22 Grace Vanstratt '27
TCC Varsity Black Lucas Rodenroth '24 [1-7] Simon Hegg '24 [1-4]
Case Brooks '24 [5-7]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Ella Beck '22 Alex Reynolds '24
TCW Varsity Green Andrew Godmer '22 Cameron Keillor '24
Troy High School Troy High School Dane Greenwood '23 [1-7] Monika Torkos '23 [1-4, 7]
Sophia Worden '23 [5-6]
Varsity Rodrigo Flores '24 Nicole Torkos '25
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Walter Paliga '22 Jack Armstrong '25
Lakers Varsity Ethan Gulati '22 [1-4]
Brent Armstrong '25 [5-7]
Brent Armstrong '25 [1-2]
Ian Phipps '25 [3-4, 7]
Ethan Gulati '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1013.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1013.7 hPa Rain0.21 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · SE 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →