MDISA Gunston Fall '21 Bronze

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Gunston Gunston Herons 1 8 5 13
2 Sabres Sabres Sabres 10 11 21
3 Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 18 18 36
4 Maryvale Preparatory School Maryvale Preparatory School Lions 15 22 37
5 Gunston Gunston Herons 2 27 29 56
6 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 33 26 59
7 Dulaney High School Dulaney High School Lions 29 32 61
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 1 2 2 1 2 8 Robbie Wilmer '24 [1-2]
Tommy Mcgeady '25 [3-5]
Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-2]
Abby Nolan '25 [3-4]
Eli Moore '24 [5]
Sabres Sabres Sabres 2 4 1 2 1 10
Maryvale Preparatory School Maryvale Preparatory School Lions 3 3 3 3 3 15 Julia Kozlowski '24
Asa Arnot '25
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 4 1 4 5 4 18
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 7 6 5 4 5 27 Cy Johnston '23 [1-2]
Julia Buchanan '23 [3-5]
Alex Mcintyre '25 [1-2]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [3-5]
Dulaney High School Dulaney High School Lions 6 5 6 6 6 29 Henry Bishop '25
Ben Dietz '23
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 7 7 7 7 33 Thomas Birchfield '26
Joseph Dibonaventuro '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Matthew Periconi '24 [1-2]
Ian Kissel '23 [3-5]
Maggie Miller '23 [1-2]
Matthew Periconi '24 [3-5]
Sabres Sabres Sabres 3 2 2 2 2 11
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 2 4 6 3 3 18
Maryvale Preparatory School Maryvale Preparatory School Lions 4 3 5 6 4 22 Claire Rowland '26
Teddy Jones '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 DNF 4 4 5 26 Lillie Fuller '23
Andy Pico '27
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 DNF 5 3 5 DNF 29 Lilah Paddy '24 [1-5]
Cordelia Worth '24 [1-2]
Abbey Miller '23 [3-5]
Dulaney High School Dulaney High School Lions 6 6 7 7 6 32 Sophia Hammond '26 [1-2]
Liam Grogan '24 [3-4]
Marcus Kozlowski '26 [5]
Liam Grogan '24 [1-2, 5]
Sophia Hammond '26 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Dulaney High SchoolDulaney High School Lions151517177
Maryvale Preparatory SchoolMaryvale Preparatory School Lions1414161618
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers161618188
SabresSabres Sabres18188813
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs17177712
GunstonGunston Herons 177121214
GunstonGunston Herons 288131315

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Dulaney High SchoolDulaney High School Lions1616181818
Maryvale Preparatory SchoolMaryvale Preparatory School Lions1515171717
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1717777
SabresSabres Sabres77121212
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs1818888
GunstonGunston Herons 188131313
GunstonGunston Herons 21212141414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Dulaney High School Dulaney High School Henry Bishop '25 Ben Dietz '23
Lions Sophia Hammond '26 [1-2]
Liam Grogan '24 [3-4]
Marcus Kozlowski '26 [5]
Liam Grogan '24 [1-2, 5]
Sophia Hammond '26 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Robbie Wilmer '24 [1-2]
Tommy Mcgeady '25 [3-5]
Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-2]
Abby Nolan '25 [3-4]
Eli Moore '24 [5]
Herons 1 Matthew Periconi '24 [1-2]
Ian Kissel '23 [3-5]
Maggie Miller '23 [1-2]
Matthew Periconi '24 [3-5]
Gunston Gunston Cy Johnston '23 [1-2]
Julia Buchanan '23 [3-5]
Alex Mcintyre '25 [1-2]
Grace Anne Philips '23 [3-5]
Herons 2 Lilah Paddy '24 [1-5] Cordelia Worth '24 [1-2]
Abbey Miller '23 [3-5]
Maryvale Preparatory School Maryvale Preparatory School Julia Kozlowski '24 Asa Arnot '25
Lions Claire Rowland '26 Teddy Jones '24
Patuxent Patuxent Thomas Birchfield '26 Joseph Dibonaventuro '25
Panthers Lillie Fuller '23 Andy Pico '27

Conditions — 10/09/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From ENE (77°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine3.2 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1020.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Gunston: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.78 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Gunston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at The Gunston, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →