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NYISA-NW Halloween Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 6 6
2 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 9 9
3 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 21 21
4 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 25 25
5 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 29 29
6 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 30 30
7 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 2 38 38
8 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 45 45
9 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 45 45
10 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 1 50 50
11 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 51 51
12 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 55 55
13 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 66 66
14 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 71 71
15 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 3 74 74
16 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 74 74
17 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 79 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 Kennedy Sole '23
Rachel Rohring '25
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 2 2 2 2 1 9 Adam Strobridge '22
Matt Lago '23
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 3 3 4 8 3 21 Bobby Dodge '22
Annie Dodge '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 4 5 3 4 9 25 Anna Flaherty '23
Alyssa Dimarco '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 5 4 6 10 4 29 Andrew Fors '22
Jae Nigalye '22
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 8 6 8 3 5 30 Finn Mahan '22
Gabe Ferreira '23
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 2 13 9 5 5 6 38 Chad Swiech '22
Emma Barillari '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 7 8 13 6 11 45 Isabella Fukushima '24
Alivia Raczyk '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 9 11 9 9 7 45 Helena Allocco '25
Joelle Blankenship '23
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 1 6 7 11 12 14 50 Nicholas Barillari '22
Sydney Kelsch '22
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 12 10 12 7 10 51 Emily Grevell '23
No Show
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 10 13 10 14 8 55 Travis Minor '22
Aidan Austin '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 16 12 7 13 DNF 66 Adelaide Matzky '25
Ruby Deascentiis '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 11 17 17 11 15 71 Joshua Lacarrubba '25
James Hamilton '24
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 3 14 16 16 16 12 74 Megan Williams '22
Sal Deni '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 17 14 15 15 13 74 Colin Marcolini '22
Thomas Ferguson '23
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 15 15 14 17 DNF 79 Peter Higgins '22
Sara Davies '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins 144444
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins 21414141414
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 11212121212
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 21818181818
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 177777
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 255555
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 199999
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 21515151515
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 31616161616
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 122222
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 233333
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 31919191919
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 11010101010
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 266666
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders2020202020
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans 111111
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans 21111111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 Finn Mahan '22 Gabe Ferreira '23
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 Travis Minor '22 Aidan Austin '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 Kennedy Sole '23 Rachel Rohring '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 Isabella Fukushima '24 Alivia Raczyk '25
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 Adam Strobridge '22 Matt Lago '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 Emily Grevell '23 No Show
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 Adelaide Matzky '25 Ruby Deascentiis '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 Helena Allocco '25 Joelle Blankenship '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 Anna Flaherty '23 Alyssa Dimarco '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 Andrew Fors '22 Jae Nigalye '22
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 Joshua Lacarrubba '25 James Hamilton '24
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 3 Megan Williams '22 Sal Deni '22
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 Bobby Dodge '22 Annie Dodge '25
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 Peter Higgins '22 Sara Davies '23
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders Colin Marcolini '22 Thomas Ferguson '23
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 1 Nicholas Barillari '22 Sydney Kelsch '22
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 2 Chad Swiech '22 Emma Barillari '25

Conditions — 10/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine5.8 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1018.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Brighton: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.38 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brighton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Brighton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →