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ISSA Cressy Singlehanded National's IlCA 6

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Severn School Severn School Robby Meek '23 1 4 5 1 4 1 15 3 1 1 4 4 3 11 DNS 77
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jackson Mcaliley '23 4 3 3 4 1 8 5 12 6 7 8 3 15 16 2 97
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Jack Redmond '22 14 7 13 9 15 7 1 15 2 2 1 2 1 6 3 98
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Morgan Pinckney '23 2 6 1 5 3 12 16 6 9 9 5 12 12 8 1 107
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 10 5 4 2 13 9 4 1 10 6 3 5 7 12 17 108
Ballard High School Ballard High School Dieter Creitz '25 6 10 2 13 5 3 9 17 7 4 14 1 16 4 4 115
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 12 2 15 7 2 16 6 7 8 11 2 13 2 9 5 117
Whittier Christian High School Whittier Christian High School Nicholas Mueller '23 OCS 8 6 3 11 4 2 8 11 12 7 16 4 1 14 126
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Hamilton Barclay '23 5 11 7 15 6 6 12 2 4 8 18 8 13 3 12 130
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Liam Andresen '22 OCS 1 16 11 10 14 3 4 13 3 11 7 6 7 7 132
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Henry Allgeier '23 9 16 11 12 9 11 11 10 5 5 10 6 10 2 16 143
Brunswick School Brunswick School Ben Sheppard '23 3 9 8 14 7 5 13 5 15 17 16 15 11 10 10 158
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 8 DSQ 12 10 16 10 8 9 3 14 15 10 9 13 6 162
Sarasota Military Academy Sarasota Military Academy Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23 11 13 14 8 12 2 7 11 17 18 9 18 17 17 13 187
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Deana Fedulova '24 15 15 9 17 18 15 18 13 16 13 17 9 5 5 11 196
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Cal Kinnear '25 13 14 10 OCS 8 17 17 18 14 16 13 14 8 14 9 204
Weston High School Weston High School Antonio Henri Maya-Lefort '22 7 12 DSQ 6 17 DSQ 14 14 18 15 12 11 18 15 8 205
Culver Academies Culver Academies Annie Samis '25 16 17 17 16 14 13 10 16 12 10 6 17 14 18 15 211

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Robby Meek '23Severn School15/154.504.59+0.0999th → 99th0.046%5.1 / 5.5
2Jackson Mcaliley '23Ransom Everglades School15/153.023.73+0.7298th → 99th2.58%6.5 / 9.3
3Jack Redmond '22St. Thomas Aquinas High School15/153.013.48+0.4798th → 99th1.115%6.5 / 9.3
4Morgan Pinckney '23Mater Dei High School15/153.563.64+0.0899th → 99th0.040%7.1 / 7.8
5Peter Barnard '23St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL15/153.713.42−0.2999th → 99th0.550%7.2 / 7.4
6Dieter Creitz '25Ballard High School15/153.143.27+0.1299th → 99th0.127%7.7 / 9.0
7Kyle Pfrang '22Nansemond-Suffolk Academy15/152.333.31+0.9889th → 99th4.510%7.8 / 11.1
8Nicholas Mueller '23Whittier Christian High School15/153.213.42+0.2199th → 99th0.247%8.4 / 8.6
9Hamilton Barclay '23Clear Falls High School15/153.653.02−0.6399th → 98th2.473%8.7 / 7.5
10Liam Andresen '22Santa Barbara High School15/153.193.25+0.0699th → 99th0.050%8.8 / 8.8
11Henry Allgeier '23Norfolk Academy15/152.863.02+0.1797th → 98th0.248%9.5 / 9.7
12Ben Sheppard '23Brunswick School15/152.832.77−0.0696th → 96th0.063%10.5 / 9.9
13Jacob Zils '23Minnetonka High School15/152.782.95+0.1696th → 98th0.166%10.8 / 9.8
14Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23Sarasota Military Academy15/152.15u1.98−0.1785th → 83rd0.263%12.5 / 11.5
15Deana Fedulova '24Walter Payton College Preparatory High School15/152.281.81−0.4788th → 80th1.279%13.1 / 11.1
16Cal Kinnear '25The Hotchkiss School15/152.44u2.02−0.4291st → 83rd0.986%13.6 / 10.8
17Antonio Henri Maya-Lefort '22Weston High School15/151.49u2.08+0.5972nd → 84th1.458%13.7 / 13.0
18Annie Samis '25Culver Academies15/152.371.57−0.8189th → 74th3.594%14.1 / 11.0

Conditions — 12/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SE (127°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Saint Thomas Aquinas — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Saint Thomas Aquinas in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas Aquinas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saint Thomas Aquinas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →