Lake Max Fall Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 9 16 25
2 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 2 22 12 34
3 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 19 16 35
4 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 19 22 41
5 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 23 37 60
6 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 4 34 29 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 1 1 1 3 1 2 9 Jackson Macnaughton '22
Eston Brown '27
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 2 2 5 5 4 1 19 Silas Lorenz '23
Emmet Lorenz '25
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 3 4 3 2 2 5 19 Diego Jiminez '25
Wyatt Miller '25
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 2 4 3 2 4 5 4 22 Renata Altuzar '22
Xinyi (Cindy) Chen '22
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 6 6 4 1 3 3 23 Christopher Mikesell '24
Xuqiu (Tina) Wang '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 34 Carlos Herrera '22
Matthew Sanderson '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 2 1 1 4 1 4 1 12 Xinshi (Jerry) Feng '23
Hope Hicks '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 3 5 3 2 1 2 16 Bergen Fischer '25
Elizabeth Shaw '25
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 4 2 1 3 2 4 16 Grayson Sikkema '27
Nathan Vanotteren '24
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 3 6 4 2 4 3 3 22 Naixin (Angela) Tang '24
Saufong (Irene) Lin '25
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 4 2 3 5 5 DNS DNS 29 Matt Spear '24
Allison Liu '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 1 5 6 6 6 DNS DNS 37 Katherine Beeson '22
Yili Wen '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 1112233
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 2223344
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 3334455
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 4445599
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles559911
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears991122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 1121220202121
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 2202021212222
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 3212122222323
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles 4222223232424
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles232324241212
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears242412122020

Conditions — 10/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1013.5 hPa Rain0.60 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Culver Academies: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Culver Academies by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Culver Academies).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →