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LASER FULL: MICHIGAN STATE CHAMPIONSHIP

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Lowell High School - MI Lowell High School - MI Jackson Macnaughton '22 7 3 1 1 4 1 1 18
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 2 4 5 5 1 2 2 21
Rockford Rockford Gavin Van Manen '23 4 2 7 2 2 4 7 28
Black River Public School Black River Public School Alden Gort '22 1 6 4 7 6 6 3 33
Forest Hills Northern High School Forest Hills Northern High School Camden Seymour '22 6 1 3 3 8 3 9 33
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Luke Strickland '22 5 7 8 6 9 12 6 53
Traverse City West Traverse City West Andrew Godmer '22 11 11 6 8 3 10 5 54
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Brody Yeloushan '24 13 8 9 11 7 9 8 65
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Boaz Selinger '23 14 10 17 4 5 11 4 65
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Colin Gordon '22 8 12 10 10 10 8 12 70
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Luke Adams '24 10 13 11 9 12 5 10 70
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Henry Feyen '25 9 9 15 12 11 7 14 77
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jimmy Souilliere '23 3 5 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 82
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Miles Laker '23 15 14 12 13 13 13 13 93
Troy High School Troy High School Nicole Torkos '25 12 15 13 14 15 14 15 98
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Simon Hegg '24 DSQ 16 14 15 14 15 11 103
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Sage Brown '22 16 17 16 16 DNS DNS DNS 119

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  17 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jackson Macnaughton '22Lowell High School - MI7/70.753.08+2.3348th → 99th8.41%2.6 / 8.0
2Gabe Maday '22St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 17/70.772.84+2.0749th → 96th7.22%3.0 / 8.0
3Gavin Van Manen '23Rockford7/71.41u2.15+0.7470th → 85th1.218%4.0 / 6.5
4Alden Gort '22Black River Public School7/71.101.84+0.7461st → 81st1.218%4.7 / 7.3
4Camden Seymour '22Forest Hills Northern High School7/71.211.74+0.5365th → 79th0.620%4.7 / 7.0
6Luke Strickland '22Birmingham Public Schools7/70.620.82+0.2043rd → 51st0.143%7.6 / 8.3
7Andrew Godmer '22Traverse City West7/70.630.78+0.1543rd → 49th0.142%7.7 / 8.4
8Boaz Selinger '23Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 17/70.10-0.28−0.3924th → 15th0.446%9.3 / 9.6
8Brody Yeloushan '24Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 27/70.260.41+0.1529th → 34th0.151%9.3 / 9.2
10Colin Gordon '22Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 37/70.630.20−0.4243rd → 27th0.573%10.0 / 8.3
10Luke Adams '24St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 27/70.520.16−0.3639th → 26th0.471%10.0 / 8.6
12Henry Feyen '25East Grand Rapids7/7-0.36-0.21+0.1414th → 16th0.154%11.0 / 10.8
13Jimmy Souilliere '23Grosse Ile High School7/70.552.69+2.1440th → 95th3.388%11.7 / 8.6
14Miles Laker '23Detroit Country Day School7/7-0.25-0.79−0.5415th → 6th0.984%13.3 / 10.5
15Nicole Torkos '25Troy High School7/7-0.26-1.53−1.2715th → 1st4.291%14.0 / 10.5
16Simon Hegg '24Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 17/7-0.67-1.42−0.758th → 1st1.390%14.7 / 11.5
17Sage Brown '22Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 27/7-0.93-3.34−2.415th → 1st4.8>99%17.0 / 12.0

Conditions — 10/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1015.0 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled fleet-race days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →