Last Chance Regatta East

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 32 43 75
2 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 39 43 82
3 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 59 27 86
4 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 31 62 93
5 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 55 38 93
6 Troy High School Troy High School Varsity 52 48 100
7 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 49 59 108
8 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 22 94 116
9 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 97 23 120
10 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 75 55 130
11 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 54 90 144
12 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 83 62 145
13 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 81 84 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 2 2 3 4 1 2 3 5 22 Owen Bannasch '22 [1-8]
Liam Bien '22 [1-2]
John Riordan '22 [3-4]
Amina Thompson '23 [5-8]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 5 5 1 3 5 1 2 9 31 Ella Beck '22
Alex Reynolds '24
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 1 4 10 1 2 3 4 7 32 Charlie Gonzalez '23
Max Crozier '23
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 7 1 7 2 6 DSQ 1 1 39 Jacob Myers '24
Bill Lazzaro '22
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 4 10 6 8 3 6 6 6 49 Michael Mullins '23
Nate Bacheller '24
Troy High School Troy High School Varsity 3 6 9 6 8 9 8 3 52 Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-8]
Sophia Worden '23 [1-2]
Nicole Torkos '25 [3-8]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 9 3 4 7 4 4 12 11 54 Nick Myneni '22 [1-6]
Will Hilborn '22 [7-8]
Liam Dowling '24 [1-4]
Gavin Lamphier '22 [5-8]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 6 7 2 12 12 5 7 4 55 Colin Gordon '22
Grace Vanstratt '27
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 10 8 11 5 7 11 5 2 59 Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Liam Gilin '25 [3]
Brent Armstrong '25 [4]
Liam Gilin '25 [1-2]
Walter Paliga '22 [3-4]
Brent Armstrong '25 [5-8]
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 8 12 5 11 10 10 11 8 75 Luke Adams '24
Maggie Puetz '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 13 11 12 10 9 7 9 10 81 Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-8]
Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 12 9 8 9 11 8 13 13 83 Elizabeth Grin '23 [1-6]
Henry Feyen '25 [7-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [1-6]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 11 13 13 13 13 12 10 12 97 Cameron Rocco '24 [1-4]
Miles Laker '23 [5-8]
Liam Hounsell '23 [1-2]
Andrew Wiand '25 [3-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1 1 1 5 1 5 6 3 23 Liam Hounsell '23
Bryan Lu '25
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 2 2 3 4 2 4 9 1 27 Vinny Paliga '24
Jack Armstrong '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 5 3 6 2 7 7 3 5 38 Lucas Rodenroth '24
Simon Hegg '24
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Pirates 4 5 12 9 3 2 2 6 43 Buck Rathbun '24
Reese Levinson '25
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 8 7 2 1 12 1 4 8 43 Aaron Wang '25
Jack Harman '23
Troy High School Troy High School Varsity 6 8 5 3 6 6 7 7 48 Dane Greenwood '23
Monika Torkos '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 10 12 4 6 9 3 1 10 55 Gabe Maday '22
Tyler Winowiecki '23
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 12 9 8 11 4 8 5 2 59 Luke Strickland '22
Madeline Martin '24
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 3 4 9 8 10 11 13 4 62 Ella Towner '23 [1-8]
Noah Sippel '22 [1-6]
Kelly Couvreur '22 [7-8]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 7 6 7 7 8 10 8 9 62 Andrew Godmer '22
Cameron Keillor '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 11 11 11 10 5 12 12 12 84 Kellan Knapp '25 [1-8]
Jacob Vasicek '23 [1-4]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [5-8]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 9 10 13 12 11 13 11 11 90 Graham Rebain '25 [1-2]
Gabe Morreale '24 [3-6]
Liam Dowling '24 [7-8]
Will Hilborn '22 [1-4]
Liam Dowling '24 [5-6]
Gabe Morreale '24 [7-8]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity 13 13 10 13 13 9 10 13 94 Liam Bien '22 [1-2]
John Riordan '22 [3-8]
Amina Thompson '23 [1-2]
Liam Bien '22 [3-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Varsity881010121211
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity11335577
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue22446688
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity33557799
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers4466881010
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet5577991111
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ668810101212
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates779911111313
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue991111131322
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black101012121133
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green111113132244
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Varsity1212113355
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity1313224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Varsity991111131322
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Varsity22446688
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue33557799
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity4466881010
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers5577991111
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet668810101212
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ779911111313
Rocky River High SchoolRocky River High School Pirates881010121211
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue101012121133
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black111113132244
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green1212113355
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Varsity1313224466
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Michael Mullins '23 Nate Bacheller '24
Varsity Luke Strickland '22 Madeline Martin '24
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 [1-8] Liam Bien '22 [1-2]
John Riordan '22 [3-4]
Amina Thompson '23 [5-8]
BRM Varsity Liam Bien '22 [1-2]
John Riordan '22 [3-8]
Amina Thompson '23 [1-2]
Liam Bien '22 [3-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Charlie Gonzalez '23 Max Crozier '23
Blue Aaron Wang '25 Jack Harman '23
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Cameron Rocco '24 [1-4]
Miles Laker '23 [5-8]
Liam Hounsell '23 [1-2]
Andrew Wiand '25 [3-8]
Varsity Liam Hounsell '23 Bryan Lu '25
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Elizabeth Grin '23 [1-6]
Henry Feyen '25 [7-8]
Henry Sippel '22 [1-6]
EGR Varsity Pioneers Ella Towner '23 [1-8] Noah Sippel '22 [1-6]
Kelly Couvreur '22 [7-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jimmy Souilliere '23 [1-8] Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [3-4]
Grosse Ile - Scarlet Kellan Knapp '25 [1-8] Jacob Vasicek '23 [1-4]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [5-8]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Nick Myneni '22 [1-6]
Will Hilborn '22 [7-8]
Liam Dowling '24 [1-4]
Gavin Lamphier '22 [5-8]
MUDJ Graham Rebain '25 [1-2]
Gabe Morreale '24 [3-6]
Liam Dowling '24 [7-8]
Will Hilborn '22 [1-4]
Liam Dowling '24 [5-6]
Gabe Morreale '24 [7-8]
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Jacob Myers '24 Bill Lazzaro '22
Pirates Buck Rathbun '24 Reese Levinson '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Luke Adams '24 Maggie Puetz '24
TCSF Varsity Blue Gabe Maday '22 Tyler Winowiecki '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Colin Gordon '22 Grace Vanstratt '27
TCC Varsity Black Lucas Rodenroth '24 Simon Hegg '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West Ella Beck '22 Alex Reynolds '24
TCW Varsity Green Andrew Godmer '22 Cameron Keillor '24
Troy High School Troy High School Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-8] Sophia Worden '23 [1-2]
Nicole Torkos '25 [3-8]
Varsity Dane Greenwood '23 Monika Torkos '23
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Liam Gilin '25 [3]
Brent Armstrong '25 [4]
Liam Gilin '25 [1-2]
Walter Paliga '22 [3-4]
Brent Armstrong '25 [5-8]
Lakers Varsity Vinny Paliga '24 Jack Armstrong '25

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1015.9 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WSW (247°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1015.9 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →