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MISSA Cressy Qualifier (ILCA 7/ Full Rig)

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Henry Scholz '23 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 20
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 4 1 20
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 35
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Jackson Walker '23 7 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 3 4 53
Rockford Rockford Gavin Van Manen '23 5 11 6 12 8 11 6 6 9 4 5 10 93
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Brady Smith '22 6 5 15 5 10 9 7 7 14 5 13 5 101
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jimmy Souilliere '23 3 8 5 11 5 8 18 12 7 9 10 8 104
Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 11 12 DNS 6 6 5 4 10 12 12 11 6 114
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Luke Strickland '22 10 6 8 15 11 10 8 14 8 11 6 9 116
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Gavin Swallow '22 13 9 9 8 7 7 9 13 10 13 8 12 118
Lowell High School - MI Lowell High School - MI Jackson Macnaughton '22 12 7 7 7 12 14 11 18 11 8 12 7 126
Black River Public School Black River Public School Alden Gort '22 9 DNS DNS DNS 13 6 14 8 6 7 7 14 141
Orono High School Orono High School Sam Jackson '23 14 13 10 10 14 12 12 5 15 15 15 11 146
Forest Hills Northern High School Forest Hills Northern High School Camden Seymour '22 8 10 12 13 9 13 10 11 4 10 DNS DNS 148 LOP
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jordi Malaret '23 16 15 13 9 16 16 16 15 13 14 9 13 165
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Rafael Zarzosa '23 15 14 11 14 15 15 13 9 DNS DNS DNS DNS 182
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Henry Feyen '25 18 17 16 16 17 18 15 16 16 16 14 15 194
Groves High School Groves High School Caden Meyers '22 17 16 14 17 18 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 199

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 12 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Henry Scholz '23Lake Forest High School12/122.924.93+2.0198th → 99th8.9<1%1.7 / 4.5
1Jack Baldwin '22Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL12/123.264.85+1.5899th → 99th5.61%1.7 / 4.0
3Owen Harrod '22Mahtomedi12/121.833.53+1.7181st → 99th8.6<1%2.9 / 6.9
4Jackson Walker '23Arrowhead High School12/121.342.62+1.2868th → 94th5.65%4.4 / 8.1
5Gavin Van Manen '23Rockford12/121.41u1.22−0.2070th → 65th0.251%7.8 / 7.9
6Brady Smith '22Olentangy Liberty High School12/12-0.430.77+1.2112th → 49th5.15%8.4 / 12.4
7Jimmy Souilliere '23Grosse Ile High School12/120.360.74+0.3833rd → 47th0.524%8.7 / 10.5
8Connor Shore '22Providence Academy12/120.460.95+0.4935th → 57th0.940%9.5 / 10.3
9Luke Strickland '22Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 112/120.630.73+0.1043rd → 47th0.049%9.7 / 9.9
10Gavin Swallow '22Birmingham Public Schools Varsity 212/120.400.72+0.3234th → 46th0.539%9.8 / 10.5
11Jackson Macnaughton '22Lowell High School - MI12/120.850.24−0.6152nd → 29th1.868%10.5 / 9.4
12Camden Seymour '22Forest Hills Northern High School12/121.210.63−0.5865th → 43rd1.588%11.5 / 8.5
13Alden Gort '22Black River Public School12/121.070.64−0.4360th → 44th0.788%11.8 / 8.8
14Sam Jackson '23Orono High School12/120.06-0.11−0.1724th → 19th0.164%12.2 / 11.2
15Jordi Malaret '23Minnetonka High School12/120.04-0.42−0.4623rd → 12th1.182%13.8 / 11.4
16Rafael Zarzosa '23Wayzata High School12/120.30-0.13−0.4331st → 18th0.697%15.2 / 10.8
17Henry Feyen '25East Grand Rapids12/12-0.36-1.84−1.4814th → 1st9.399%16.2 / 12.3
18Caden Meyers '22Groves High School12/12-0.90-2.10−1.205th → 1st4.894%16.6 / 13.5

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Lake Forest Sailing — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lake Forest Sailing in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Lake Forest Sailing, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →