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Mobile Bay Series 1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 10 10
2 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 10 10
3 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 11 11
4 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 13 13
5 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 18 18
6 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 22 22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 1 4 3 2 10 Nate Hartwell '24
Austin Gontarski '24
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 3 1 2 4 10 Joe Comer '26
Issac Sprayberry '27
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 4 5 1 1 11 Elijah Healy '22
No Show
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 2 2 6 3 13 Cruz Dabney '26
Coleman Kennedy '25
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 5 3 4 6 18 Layton Dugger '26
Axel Jackson '26
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 6 6 5 5 22 Gavin Faircloth '22
Ethan Agerton '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2020 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles18181818
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates17171717
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Blue13131313
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Gold2222
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red9999
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White19191919

Conditions — 09/12/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From ESE (118°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1021.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Michael Catholic: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.42 ± 0.45)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Michael Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at St. Michael Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →