NorCal #2 Gold

HostBerkeley
Date09/19/2021
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	13	13
2	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	16	16
3	Archie Williams High School	Pirates	33	33
4	The Urban School	Blues	37	37
5	Alameda High School	Hornets	39	39
6	Acalanes High School	Dons	49	49
7	Archbishop Riordan HS	Riordan	53	53
8	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	57	57
9	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	67	67
10	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	68	68
11	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	77	77
12	The Athenian School	Owls	77	77
13	Design Tech High School	d.tech	82	82
14	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	87	87
15	International HS - SF	Jaguars	87	87
16	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	119	119

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	1	3	1	2	3	2	1	13	Ryan Marquess '22 Stevie Thomsen '23
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	3	1	4	1	1	3	3	16	Cody Lamoreux '23 [1-7] Lelio Maurillo '25 [1-2, 5-6] Zach Buono '24 [3-4, 7]
Archie Williams High School	Pirates	7	4	5	4	6	5	2	33	Aj Mckeon '23 Jason Lester '24
The Urban School	Blues	2	2	6	5	9	9	4	37	Tucker Lamoreux '23 Kai Classen '24
Alameda High School	Hornets	5	7	14	3	2	1	7	39	Chase Carson '25 [1-2] Camille Dawson '23 [3] Dylan Wondolleck '23 [4-7] Dylan Wondolleck '23 [1-2] John Maxey '23 [3] Chase Carson '25 [4-7]
Acalanes High School	Dons	13	5	2	7	4	10	8	49	Molly Connelly '26 Brendan Connelly '23
Archbishop Riordan HS	Riordan	11	6	3	DNS	5	6	5	53	Antonio Priskich '23 Eva Bennett '25
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	8	8	9	12	7	7	6	57	Sebastian Green '22 Natalie Tonkovich '24
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	4	12	8	8	8	12	15	67	Amanda Yolles '22 [1-7] Emma Yashinsky '23 [1-2, 5-7] Ella Andrzejek '25 [3-4]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	6	9	13	14	12	4	10	68	Jack Phibbs '23 [1-7] Alyssa Barkus '22 [1-2, 5-7] Annika Burns '23 [3-4]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	9	14	12	6	11	13	12	77	Alice Newmeyer '25 [1-2, 7] Arthur Serra '23 [3-6] Andrew James '25 [1-4] Alice Newmeyer '25 [5-6] Arthur Serra '23 [7]
The Athenian School	Owls	10	11	7	9	13	14	13	77	Leo Marek '22 [1-7] Benson Webb '24 [1-2, 5-6] California Nunes '24 [3-4, 7]
Design Tech High School	d.tech	14	13	15	10	10	11	9	82	Tatem Gee '23 Melanie Magnani '23
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	12	10	11	13	15	15	11	87	Ian Somerville '22 Charlie Winstead '24
International HS - SF	Jaguars	15	15	10	11	14	8	14	87	Alexander Kasolas '22 [1-7] Theo Li '25 [1-2, 5-6] Rikhard Vatuen '24 [3-4, 7]
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	119	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Acalanes High School Dons	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
Alameda High School Hornets	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Archbishop Riordan HS Riordan	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Design Tech High School d.tech	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
International HS - SF Jaguars	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Archie Williams High School Pirates	140	140	140	140	140	140	140
Stevenson School Pirates 2	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	79	79	79	79	79	79	79
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
The Athenian School Owls	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82	82
The Urban School Blues	6	6	6	6	6	6	6

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Acalanes High School	Dons	Molly Connelly '26	Brendan Connelly '23
Alameda High School	Hornets	Chase Carson '25 [1-2] Camille Dawson '23 [3] Dylan Wondolleck '23 [4-7]	Dylan Wondolleck '23 [1-2] John Maxey '23 [3] Chase Carson '25 [4-7]
Archbishop Riordan HS	Riordan	Antonio Priskich '23	Eva Bennett '25
Archie Williams High School	Pirates	Aj Mckeon '23	Jason Lester '24
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	Sebastian Green '22	Natalie Tonkovich '24
Design Tech High School	d.tech	Tatem Gee '23	Melanie Magnani '23
International HS - SF	Jaguars	Alexander Kasolas '22 [1-7]	Theo Li '25 [1-2, 5-6] Rikhard Vatuen '24 [3-4, 7]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Alice Newmeyer '25 [1-2, 7] Arthur Serra '23 [3-6]	Andrew James '25 [1-4] Alice Newmeyer '25 [5-6] Arthur Serra '23 [7]
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	No Show	No Show
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	Ryan Marquess '22	Stevie Thomsen '23
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Jack Phibbs '23 [1-7]	Alyssa Barkus '22 [1-2, 5-7] Annika Burns '23 [3-4]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Ian Somerville '22	Charlie Winstead '24
The Athenian School	Owls	Leo Marek '22 [1-7]	Benson Webb '24 [1-2, 5-6] California Nunes '24 [3-4, 7]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Cody Lamoreux '23 [1-7]	Lelio Maurillo '25 [1-2, 5-6] Zach Buono '24 [3-4, 7]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Amanda Yolles '22 [1-7]	Emma Yashinsky '23 [1-2, 5-7] Ella Andrzejek '25 [3-4]
The Urban School	Blues	Tucker Lamoreux '23	Kai Classen '24

Conditions — 09/19/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 23.1 kn

From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1018.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Berkeley: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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