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NorCal #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Archbishop Riordan Archbishop Riordan Riordan 11 11
2 Archie Williams High School Archie Williams High School Pirates 12 12
3 The Urban School The Urban School Blues 18 18
4 Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 24 24
5 Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 26 26
6 Aragon High School Aragon High School Aragon 32 32
7 The International School of San Francisco The International School of San Francisco Jaguars 34 34
8 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 36 36
9 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 44 44
10 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 48 48
11 SF University High School SF University High School Red Devils 54 54
12 Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 59 59
13 Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 63 63
14 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 66 66
15 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 76 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Archbishop Riordan Archbishop Riordan Riordan 4 2 1 2 2 11 Antonio Priskich '23
Eva Bennett '25
Archie Williams High School Archie Williams High School Pirates 1 3 4 1 3 12 Aj Mckeon '23
Jason Lester '24
The Urban School The Urban School Blues 3 1 5 4 5 18 Tucker Lamoreux '23 [1-5]
Stella Reynaga '24 [1-2]
Isaac Hoffman '25 [3-5]
Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 6 5 2 3 8 24 Annabelle Brameld '23
Max Brameld '25
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 8 4 7 6 1 26 Sebastian Green '22
Miles Klingbell '24
Aragon High School Aragon High School Aragon 7 7 6 5 7 32 Lucas Kasper '23
Gavin Hayes '24
The International School of San Francisco The International School of San Francisco Jaguars 10 6 3 11 4 34 Julien Prefot '22 [1-5]
Tristan De Halleux '25 [1-2]
Charlie Fine '25 [3-5]
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 9 12 7 6 36 Jack Phibbs '23 [1-5]
Alyssa Barkus '22 [1-4]
Annika Burns '23 [5]
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 5 8 8 13 10 44 Artemis Edison '22 [1-5]
Kelly Benson '24 [1-2, 5]
Reid Sojka '26 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 11 11 9 8 9 48 Tatem Gee '23
Matthew Huskins '23
SF University High School SF University High School Red Devils 9 12 13 9 11 54 Arthur Serra '23 [1-4]
Alice Newmeyer '25 [5]
Andrew James '25 [1-4]
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 14 13 10 10 12 59 Sara Govert '22 [1-5]
Peter Stokes '24 [1-2]
Mark Hsia '24 [3-5]
Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 12 10 11 14 DNS 63 Xander Williams '24
Michael Pham '23
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 13 14 14 12 13 66 Cayden Bauer '22 [1-5]
Lelio Maurillo '25 [1-2]
Max Borgiotti '25 [3-5]
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 15 15 15 15 DNS 76 Ryan Marquess '22
Stevie Thomsen '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets5555555555
Aragon High SchoolAragon High School Aragon3232323232
Archbishop RiordanArchbishop Riordan Riordan1010101010
Bishop O'Dowd High SchoolBishop O'Dowd High School Varsity4646464646
Convent and Stuart Hall High SchoolsConvent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs99999
Crystal Springs Uplands SchoolCrystal Springs Uplands School Griffins3737373737
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech3939393939
The International School of San FranciscoThe International School of San Francisco Jaguars77777
Piedmont High SchoolPiedmont High School Varsity4848484848
SF University High SchoolSF University High School Red Devils22222
Archie Williams High SchoolArchie Williams High School Pirates140140140140140
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks7979797979
The Bay School of San FranciscoThe Bay School of San Francisco Breakers8181818181
The Urban SchoolThe Urban School Blues66666

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 24.3 kn
From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1018.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Berkeley: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.24)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.16
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.15 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.24 means a rating gap counts about 21% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →