NYISA-NW Fall Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 7 7 14
2 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 18 5 23
3 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 13 13 26
4 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 7 30 37
5 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 28 15 43
6 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 20 36 56
7 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 22 34 56
8 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 36 29 65
9 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 29 41 70
10 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 40 31 71
11 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 47 48 95
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 2 2 2 7 Bobby Dodge '22
Annie Dodge '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 1 3 1 7 Brooks Turcotte '23
Zoe Pike '24
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 3 3 4 3 13 Finn Mahan '22
Angelina Guilfoyle '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 5 5 1 7 18 Megan Williams '22
Sal Deni '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 4 7 5 4 20 Josh Elliott '24
Teddy Lukowski '22
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 6 4 6 6 22 Nicholas Barillari '22
Sydney Kelsch '22
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 8 8 7 5 28 Natalie Dunlap '24
Cailin Budnik '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 7 6 8 8 29 Adelaide Matzky '25
Ruby Deascentiis '25
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 9 9 9 9 36 Emily Grevell '23
No Show
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 10 10 10 10 40 Jae Nigalye '22
Anthony Honeine '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 DNF DNS 11 DNS 47 Nolan Lefler '25
Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 1 1 1 2 1 5 Mason Howell '24
Andrew Fors '22
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 2 1 2 7 Philipp Meyer '24
Matt Lefler '24
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 3 3 3 4 13 Travis Minor '22
Aidan Austin '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 4 4 4 3 15 Kaya Fitzpatrick '24
Isabella Fukushima '24
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 8 7 7 7 29 Matt Lago '23
Adam Strobridge '22
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 7 5 DNS 6 30 Peter Higgins '22
Vitoria Fornataro '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 2 9 8 6 8 31 James Hamilton '24
Matteo Biondini '25
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans DNF DNS 5 5 34 Chad Swiech '22
Megan Kelsch '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 6 6 DNS DNS 36 Thomas Ferguson '23 [1-4]
William Wadhams '25 [1-2]
Colin Marcolini '22 [3-4]
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 5 DNF DNF DNF 41 Anna Flaherty '23
Joelle Blankenship '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 Aly Dalton '24
Grace Felton '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins1111
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks2222
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders3333
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs4444
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 15555
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 26666
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights7777
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 18888
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 29999
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders10101010
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans11111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins1111
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks2222
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders3333
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs4444
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 15555
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings 26666
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights7777
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 18888
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 29999
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders10101010
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans11111111

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1013.4 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.6 kn
Gusts to 29.0 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1013.4 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Buffalo Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Buffalo Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →