PCISA Single-Handed District Championships

HostUS Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA
Date09/25/2021
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#		School	Sailor	TOT
1		Harvard-Westlake	Katharine Doble '22	68
2		Mater Dei High School	Morgan Pinckney '23	71
3		Santa Barbara High School	Liam Andresen '22	78
4		Whittier Christian High School	Nicholas Mueller '23	89
5		Marin Academy	Tor Svendsen '23	121
6		Mater Dei High School	Tate Christopher '25	129
7		Dos Pueblos	Oliver Stokke '22	131
8		Santa Barbara High School	Jonathon Seawards '22	154
9		Dos Pueblos	Zoey Ziskind '23	182
10		The Grauer School	Devon Owen '23	194
11		Point Loma High School	Harrison Strom '24	196
12		Palos Verdes High School	Tommy Kraak '24	202
13		La Jolla Country Day School	Ben Conroy '24	202
14		Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory	Ethan Sargent '23	208
15		Cathedral Catholic High School	Claudia Arriaga '23	225
16		Point Loma High School	Calvin Schmid '22	252
17		Coronado Islanders	Tommy Rudowicz '24	279
18		Dos Pueblos	Jack Forgea '23	282
19		Redwood	Cooper Smith '22	310
20		Palos Verdes High School	Chris Salas '22	327
21		Laguna Blanca School	Hudson Mayfield '23	337
22		Santa Barbara High School	Magne Henriques '24	344
23		Olympian High School	Alexandra Shand '24	349
24		Sterne High School	Michele Biral '24	362
25		Coronado Islanders	Stella Taherian '23	365
26		Point Loma High School	Dylan Gardner '22	382
27	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Alex Lech '24	395
28		Point Loma High School	Cole Tillson '22	400
29		Ernest J. McBride	Tristan Feves '22	408
30		Amador Valley	Alec Smith '23	413
31		Laguna Blanca School	Myles Hazen '23	441
32		San Marcos High School	Hope Campbell '24	444
33		Park City High School	Calvin Marsh '24	450
34		Los Alamitos High School	Jack Hanson '22	455
35	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Preston Woodworth '23	481
36		Alameda High School	Artemis Edison '22	499
37		The Athenian School	Leo Marek '22	509
38		Park City High School	Corinne Letchford '24	578
39		Park City High School	Zachary Smith '24	583
40		Coronado Islanders	Lina Carper '23	615

	School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT
	Harvard-Westlake	Katharine Doble '22	5	9	2	3	6	2	3	1	8	4	5	7	2	7	4	68
	Mater Dei High School	Morgan Pinckney '23	2	1	4	1	2	1	2	2	1	12	12	6	8	8	9	71
	Santa Barbara High School	Liam Andresen '22	1	6	3	2	3	5	5	4	11	8	1	8	12	4	5	78
	Whittier Christian High School	Nicholas Mueller '23	12	2	7	6	8	10	7	7	5	1	4	1	3	13	3	89
	Marin Academy	Tor Svendsen '23	3	7	6	7	1	7	1	OCS	7	3	3	5	15	1	14	121
	Mater Dei High School	Tate Christopher '25	6	12	10	4	7	6	4	6	3	2	11	9	1	RAF	7	129
	Dos Pueblos	Oliver Stokke '22	7	3	1	8	9	3	12	3	13	5	9	OCS	4	11	2	131
	Santa Barbara High School	Jonathon Seawards '22	18	8	20	9	5	9	6	14	4	10	8	4	17	3	19	154
	Dos Pueblos	Zoey Ziskind '23	23	17	8	21	18	15	11	9	6	9	17	3	13	6	6	182
	The Grauer School	Devon Owen '23	9	5	5	5	4	4	OCS	12	12	7	DNF	12	16	5	16	194
	Point Loma High School	Harrison Strom '24	16	13	11	15	13	18	9	11	10	18	13	20	10	2	17	196
	Palos Verdes High School	Tommy Kraak '24	4	4	9	12	17	DNF	14	5	2	11	2	25	27	17	12	202
	La Jolla Country Day School	Ben Conroy '24	14	19	14	13	14	19	8	13	24	6	6	22	5	12	13	202
	Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory	Ethan Sargent '23	17	14	18	14	11	8	18	10	30	15	7	10	7	14	15	208
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Claudia Arriaga '23	13	22	13	10	10	11	16	16	14	19	19	15	21	15	11	225
	Point Loma High School	Calvin Schmid '22	15	11	22	25	22	14	19	23	9	17	16	18	20	20	1	252
	Coronado Islanders	Tommy Rudowicz '24	20	20	15	11	15	20	13	15	33	22	10	11	23	29	22	279
	Dos Pueblos	Jack Forgea '23	8	16	25	16	12	13	10	17	19	OCS	21	32	6	25	21	282
	Redwood	Cooper Smith '22	24	24	17	20	16	24	DNS	DNS	15	13	20	2	25	10	18	310
	Palos Verdes High School	Chris Salas '22	21	18	16	18	21	12	OCS	8	25	28	15	19	24	27	34	327
	Laguna Blanca School	Hudson Mayfield '23	10	29	23	17	19	17	17	18	17	OCS	28	30	22	22	27	337
	Santa Barbara High School	Magne Henriques '24	11	25	28	27	30	27	29	31	22	DNF	22	13	9	9	20	344
	Olympian High School	Alexandra Shand '24	25	21	19	23	23	21	21	20	20	14	29	26	29	30	28	349
	Sterne High School	Michele Biral '24	27	26	21	28	26	23	24	26	26	24	18	27	14	26	26	362
	Coronado Islanders	Stella Taherian '23	28	28	35	29	27	28	25	29	23	16	23	14	11	18	31	365
	Point Loma High School	Dylan Gardner '22	19	10	12	19	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	18	21	26	31	33	21	8	382
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Alex Lech '24	30	32	26	DNF	29	30	DNS	DNS	21	20	14	17	19	24	10	395
	Point Loma High School	Cole Tillson '22	22	27	33	30	28	25	22	25	36	25	25	23	28	19	32	400
	Ernest J. McBride	Tristan Feves '22	32	34	34	31	24	33	27	27	16	31	24	24	30	16	25	408
	Amador Valley	Alec Smith '23	29	35	24	24	20	16	15	21	32	29	OCS	29	34	35	29	413
	Laguna Blanca School	Myles Hazen '23	31	31	27	22	OCS	29	30	24	29	30	OCS	28	31	23	24	441
	San Marcos High School	Hope Campbell '24	26	15	32	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	27	23	27	16	18	32	23	444
	Park City High School	Calvin Marsh '24	34	30	31	32	25	26	23	22	34	26	32	33	35	31	36	450
	Los Alamitos High School	Jack Hanson '22	33	23	29	26	31	22	20	19	DNF	34	DNF	OCS	32	33	30	455
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Preston Woodworth '23	36	36	37	34	32	31	DNS	DNS	28	27	30	21	26	28	33	481
	Alameda High School	Artemis Edison '22	35	33	30	33	DNF	32	28	28	31	33	33	34	37	36	35	499
	The Athenian School	Leo Marek '22	37	37	36	35	33	34	26	30	35	32	31	35	36	34	38	509
	Park City High School	Corinne Letchford '24	38	39	38	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	38	35	34	37	39	38	37	578
	Park City High School	Zachary Smith '24	DNF	38	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	37	36	35	36	38	37	39	583
	Coronado Islanders	Lina Carper '23	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	615

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 40 boats · 15 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Katharine Doble '22	Harvard-Westlake	15/15	3.15	4.67	+1.52	99th → 99th	9.7	<1%	4.5 / 12.2
2	Morgan Pinckney '23	Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 1	15/15	3.49	4.46	+0.97	99th → 99th	4.3	2%	4.7 / 10.7
3	Liam Andresen '22	Santa Barbara High School Dons 1	15/15	2.98	4.40	+1.42	98th → 99th	8.9	2%	5.2 / 13.3
4	Nicholas Mueller '23	Whittier Christian High School	15/15	3.21	4.07	+0.86	99th → 99th	3.6	3%	5.9 / 11.9
5	Tor Svendsen '23	Marin Academy	15/15	2.72	4.23	+1.50	95th → 99th	9.2	4%	8.1 / 14.5
6	Tate Christopher '25	Mater Dei High School MONARCHS 2	15/15	2.61	4.06	+1.45	94th → 99th	8.7	4%	8.6 / 15.0
7	Oliver Stokke '22	Dos Pueblos Chargers 2	15/15	2.75	3.93	+1.18	95th → 99th	6.0	13%	8.7 / 14.5
8	Jonathon Seawards '22	Santa Barbara High School Dons 2	15/15	2.75	3.06	+0.31	95th → 99th	0.6	21%	10.3 / 14.6
9	Zoey Ziskind '23	Dos Pueblos Chargers 3	15/15	2.42	2.68	+0.26	91st → 95th	0.4	24%	12.1 / 16.1
10	Devon Owen '23	The Grauer School	15/15	3.09	3.47	+0.38	99th → 99th	0.7	57%	12.9 / 12.5
11	Harrison Strom '24	Point Loma High School Pointers 4	15/15	2.84	2.63	−0.21	96th → 94th	0.3	46%	13.1 / 13.8
12	Ben Conroy '24	La Jolla Country Day School	15/15	1.88	2.55	+0.67	81st → 92nd	2.5	15%	13.5 / 19.3
12	Tommy Kraak '24	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 1	15/15	2.18	2.67	+0.48	86th → 94th	1.2	24%	13.5 / 17.4
14	Ethan Sargent '23	Sacred Heart Cathedral Preparatory	15/15	1.71^u	2.44	+0.73	78th → 91st	2.8	12%	13.9 / 20.2
15	Claudia Arriaga '23	Cathedral Catholic High School	15/15	1.75	2.39	+0.65	79th → 91st	2.3	19%	15.0 / 20.0
16	Calvin Schmid '22	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	15/15	2.30	1.91	−0.39	88th → 82nd	1.1	51%	16.8 / 16.9
17	Tommy Rudowicz '24	Coronado Islanders Nado 3	15/15	2.01	1.72	−0.29	83rd → 79th	0.6	53%	18.6 / 18.5
18	Jack Forgea '23	Dos Pueblos Chargers 1	15/15	1.44	1.88	+0.44	71st → 81st	1.0	32%	18.8 / 21.6
19	Cooper Smith '22	Redwood	15/15	1.88	1.96	+0.09	81st → 83rd	0.0	62%	20.7 / 19.1
20	Chris Salas '22	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings 2	15/15	1.27	1.51	+0.24	66th → 73rd	0.3	45%	21.8 / 22.5
21	Hudson Mayfield '23	Laguna Blanca School Varsity 1	15/15	1.50	1.45	−0.05	73rd → 71st	0.0	58%	22.5 / 21.3
22	Magne Henriques '24	Santa Barbara High School Dons 3	15/15	0.91	0.73	−0.18	54th → 47th	0.2	38%	22.9 / 24.5
23	Alexandra Shand '24	Olympian High School	15/15	1.33^u	1.23	−0.10	67th → 65th	0.1	56%	23.3 / 22.3
24	Michele Biral '24	Sterne High School	15/15	1.06^u	1.09	+0.03	60th → 60th	0.0	53%	24.1 / 23.5
25	Stella Taherian '23	Coronado Islanders Nado 2	15/15	0.85	0.80	−0.05	52nd → 51st	0.0	46%	24.3 / 24.7
26	Dylan Gardner '22	Point Loma High School Pointers 3	15/15	1.32	1.51	+0.19	67th → 73rd	0.2	71%	25.5 / 22.4
27	Alex Lech '24	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons 1	15/15	1.62	1.09	−0.53	75th → 60th	1.6	84%	26.3 / 20.7
28	Cole Tillson '22	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	15/15	1.15	0.68	−0.47	63rd → 45th	1.6	72%	26.7 / 23.3
29	Tristan Feves '22	Ernest J. McBride	15/15	0.76	0.41	−0.34	48th → 34th	0.8	63%	27.2 / 25.3
30	Alec Smith '23	Amador Valley	15/15	0.78^u	0.68	−0.10	49th → 45th	0.1	65%	27.5 / 25.1
31	Myles Hazen '23	Laguna Blanca School Varsity 2	15/15	0.60	0.50	−0.10	42nd → 38th	0.0	70%	29.4 / 26.3
32	Hope Campbell '24	San Marcos High School	15/15	1.19^u	1.13	−0.06	65th → 61st	0.0	89%	29.6 / 22.8
33	Calvin Marsh '24	Park City High School Miners 1	15/15	1.22	0.20	−1.02	65th → 27th	8.5	92%	30.0 / 22.8
34	Jack Hanson '22	Los Alamitos High School	15/15	-0.15	0.49	+0.64	18th → 38th	1.8	51%	30.3 / 29.8
35	Preston Woodworth '23	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons 2	15/15	0.63	-0.08	−0.71	43rd → 20th	3.0	89%	32.1 / 25.8
36	Artemis Edison '22	Alameda High School	15/15	0.24	-0.23	−0.47	29th → 15th	1.5	86%	33.3 / 28.0
37	Leo Marek '22	The Athenian School	15/15	0.01	-0.81	−0.82	22nd → 6th	4.1	85%	33.9 / 29.0
38	Corinne Letchford '24	Park City High School Miners 2	15/15	0.22^u	-2.66	−2.88	28th → 1st	23.4	>99%	38.5 / 28.1
39	Zachary Smith '24	Park City High School Miners 3	15/15	0.04^u	-1.68	−1.73	23rd → 1st	9.4	>99%	38.9 / 28.9
40	Lina Carper '23	Coronado Islanders Nado 1	15/15	1.63	—	—	76th → —	0.0	>99%	41.0 / 20.7

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 63°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From WSW (253°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1015.0 hPa

What this breeze does at US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at US Sailing Center - Long Beach, CA: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu