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TC tier 3 FUNday regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 11 14 25
2 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 21 12 33
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 29 36 65
4 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils - MIXED 34 40 74
5 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 34 45 79
6 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 63 23 86
7 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 76 25 101
8 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 57 50 107
9 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms 32 77 109
10 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 55 55 110
11 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 74 50 124
12 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 47 78 125
13 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 57 72 129
14 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 58 72 130
15 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Mixed 77 59 136
16 Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 91 94 185
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1 1 1 2 1 5 11 Gavin Webster '24
Colin Hexter '23
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 7 2 5 3 3 1 21 Vinny Paliga '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Liam Gilin '25 [3-4]
Sophia Worden '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Vinny Paliga '24 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 3 3 6 1 6 10 29 Nyle Eggert '24
Ryan Bonney '24
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms 6 7 4 4 4 7 32 Quinn Gerber '26
Maggie Puetz '24
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 5 6 3 9 8 3 34 Elizabeth Grin '23
Henry Sippel '22
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils - MIXED 9 11 2 6 2 4 34 Anna Mcaughey '24
Eva Ottenbreit '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 4 13 8 7 9 6 47 Bergen Fischer '25
Elizabeth Shaw '25
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 8 5 12 12 16 2 55 Payden Pittman '24
Joshua Hacker '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 2 4 15 15 10 11 57 Isley Moshier '25
Anders Lyons '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 12 8 10 5 14 8 57 Matthew Tevelde '26
Jonas Pearson '25
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 10 10 7 14 5 12 58 Michael Kovalchik '23 [1-6]
C. Debruyn '27 [1-2]
William Quick-Severin '26 [3-4]
Lena Clark '22 [5-6]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 11 9 11 11 7 14 63 Kellan Knapp '25
Griffin Wilcox '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 14 15 9 10 11 15 74 Winston Hegg '26
Bode Dykstra '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 13 14 14 13 13 9 76 Caroline Henry '23
Alexis Twa '26
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Mixed 16 12 13 8 12 16 77 Titus Storrs '25
Noah Sippel '22
Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 15 16 16 16 15 13 91 Brendan Falkowski '22 [1-6]
Joshua Mendoza '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Wicks '25 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 1 3 2 1 4 1 12 Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Graham Rebain '25 [3-4]
Graham Rebain '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Walter Paliga '22 [3-4]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils BKD 2 3 3 1 3 14 Eric Brieden '24 [1-6]
Dominic Palazzolo '23 [1-2]
Charlie Gmeiner '23 [3-6]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 3 1 4 5 8 2 23 Sydney Porter '24
Norton Coulibaly '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 4 5 1 7 2 6 25 Jack Hubbard '25
Andrew Twa '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 2 8 8 4 10 4 36 Ben Dornbush '22
Lila Torresen '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Red Devils - MIXED 15 4 5 2 7 7 40 No Show
No Show
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers 8 7 10 9 6 5 45 Emily Grin '26
Catherine Grin '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC ms 5 14 6 8 9 8 50 Cooper Gerber '26
Holden Trapp '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mid School 9 6 11 10 5 9 50 Brady Mohr '26
Matthew Minor '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 7 9 9 6 12 12 55 Gavin Yonker '24
Kari Taylor '25
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Mixed 6 15 7 13 3 15 59 Gavin Graetz '26
Eric Paulson '26
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 10 11 13 11 13 14 72 Logan Miceli '27 [1-6]
Lena Clark '22 [1-2]
Owen Watkins '30 [3-4]
Clayton Debryun '26 [5-6]
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 12 10 12 14 11 13 72 Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-6]
Anneke Hackney '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Eva Carini '27 [3-4]
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms 13 12 14 12 15 11 77 Sophia Barbas '25
Becky Lechota '25
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 11 13 15 15 14 10 78 Colton Dubuque '25 [1-6]
Dylan Browning '25 [1-2]
Jack Hirsh '23 [3-6]
Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 14 16 16 16 16 16 94 Cara Falkowski '24
Emily Matko '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Bath Bees113355
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed224466
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers335577
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Mixed446688
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED557799
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue66881010
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet8810101212
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Red Devils - MIXED77991111
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils9911111313
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed111113131515
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed101012121414
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms121214141616
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears1313151511
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC ms1414161622
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School15151133
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Green16162244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bath High SchoolBath High School Bath Bees224466
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed335577
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Pioneers446688
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Mixed557799
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED66881010
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue77991111
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet9911111313
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Red Devils - MIXED8810101212
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils101012121414
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed121214141616
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed111113131515
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms1313151511
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears1414161622
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC ms15151133
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mid School16162244
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Green113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bath High School Bath High School Brendan Falkowski '22 [1-6] Joshua Mendoza '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Wicks '25 [3-4]
Bath Bees Cara Falkowski '24 Emily Matko '22
Black River Public School Black River Public School Matthew Tevelde '26 Jonas Pearson '25
Mixed Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-6] Anneke Hackney '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Eva Carini '27 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Elizabeth Grin '23 Henry Sippel '22
EGR Varsity Pioneers Emily Grin '26 Catherine Grin '26
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Titus Storrs '25 Noah Sippel '22
Mixed Gavin Graetz '26 Eric Paulson '26
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School Michael Kovalchik '23 [1-6] C. Debruyn '27 [1-2]
William Quick-Severin '26 [3-4]
Lena Clark '22 [5-6]
East Lansing MIXED Logan Miceli '27 [1-6] Lena Clark '22 [1-2]
Owen Watkins '30 [3-4]
Clayton Debryun '26 [5-6]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Payden Pittman '24 Joshua Hacker '24
GH Blue Gavin Yonker '24 Kari Taylor '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Kellan Knapp '25 Griffin Wilcox '25
Grosse Ile - Scarlet Sydney Porter '24 Norton Coulibaly '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Anna Mcaughey '24 Eva Ottenbreit '22
Red Devils - MIXED No Show No Show
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gavin Webster '24 Colin Hexter '23
Blue Devils Eric Brieden '24 [1-6] Dominic Palazzolo '23 [1-2]
Charlie Gmeiner '23 [3-6]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Nyle Eggert '24 Ryan Bonney '24
Grey Mixed Ben Dornbush '22 Lila Torresen '25
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Caroline Henry '23 Alexis Twa '26
Red Mixed Jack Hubbard '25 Andrew Twa '24
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Quinn Gerber '26 Maggie Puetz '24
TCSF ms Sophia Barbas '25 Becky Lechota '25
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bergen Fischer '25 Elizabeth Shaw '25
Bears Colton Dubuque '25 [1-6] Dylan Browning '25 [1-2]
Jack Hirsh '23 [3-6]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Isley Moshier '25 Anders Lyons '26
TCC ms Cooper Gerber '26 Holden Trapp '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West Winston Hegg '26 Bode Dykstra '27
TCW Mid School Brady Mohr '26 Matthew Minor '27
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Vinny Paliga '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Liam Gilin '25 [3-4]		 Sophia Worden '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Vinny Paliga '24 [3-4]
MIXED Green Walter Paliga '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Graham Rebain '25 [3-4]		 Graham Rebain '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Walter Paliga '22 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.34 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →