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Turkey Leg 2021

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Harbor Springs Sailing Team Harbor Springs Sailing Team Mixed 24 50 74
2 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks 25 49 74
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 47 33 80
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 1 71 14 85
5 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 41 53 94
6 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 48 65 113
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 2 97 21 118
8 Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 38 82 120
9 Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 85 MRP 55 MRP 140 MRP
10 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 81 66 147
11 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey 59 97 156
12 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 2 67 130 197
13 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 1 102 99 201
14 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 127 104 231
15 Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 113 119 232
16 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 115 117 232
17 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 142 112 254
18 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 110 152 262
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Harbor Springs Sailing Team Harbor Springs Sailing Team Mixed 1 2 4 8 1 3 4 1 24 Maren Matthews '22
Keeley Knapp '22
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks 5 1 2 1 7 4 3 2 25 Michael Mullins '23
Jacob Doll '22
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 7 4 7 2 3 7 1 7 38 Rodrigo Flores '24
Sophia Worden '23
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 2 8 5 5 5 5 6 5 41 Greta Traver '23 [1-8]
Stella Vantill '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Hanan Lomax '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 14 3 8 4 4 1 10 3 47 Caroline Henry '23
Andrew Twa '24
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 13 5 3 6 8 2 5 6 48 Payden Pittman '24
Kari Taylor '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey 4 6 1 7 6 14 17 4 59 Jimmy Souilliere '23
Isley Moshier '25
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 2 8 10 10 3 2 6 DNF 9 67 Bergen Fischer '25
Elizabeth Shaw '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 1 6 7 9 10 11 12 8 8 71 Grant Miller '24
Daniel Kotsekon '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 10 13 12 9 15 9 2 11 81 Lila Torresen '25 [1-8]
Alexis Twa '26 [1-2]
Gavin Yonker '24 [3-8]
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 3 9 6 11 9 10 7 10 85 MRP Michael Cyrul '24 [1-8]
Clayton Debryun '26 [1-2, 5-6]
William Quick-Severin '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 2 11 12 13 16 10 8 9 18 97 Cooper Gerber '26
Anders Lyons '26
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 1 9 14 11 15 13 13 12 15 102 John Norland '23
Jack Hirsh '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 12 16 14 12 14 16 13 13 110 Jacob Vasicek '23
Griffin Wilcox '25
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 16 15 16 13 12 11 14 16 113 Brendan Falkowski '22
Ethan Wicks '25
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed DNS 11 15 14 16 15 11 14 115 Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-8]
Olive Mcgough '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Elsa Westra '26 [5-6]
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 15 17 17 17 17 17 15 12 127 Dorian Ferguson '26
Andrew Wehrman '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green DNF 18 18 18 18 18 16 17 142 Jacob Ritter '24 [1, 4-6]
Bella Satterfield '24 [2-3, 7-8]
Bella Satterfield '24 [1, 4-6]
Jacob Ritter '24 [2-3, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 14 Colin Gordon '22 [1-8]
Sophia Barbas '25 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Becky Lechota '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 2 2 3 1 2 1 4 4 4 21 Gabe Maday '22
Holden Trapp '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 2 10 3 4 6 1 3 33 Nyle Eggert '24
Ryan Bonney '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks 6 5 5 5 7 8 6 7 49 Monika Torkos '23
Nicole Torkos '25
Harbor Springs Sailing Team Harbor Springs Sailing Team Mixed 7 4 7 9 5 5 7 6 50 Anna Mcaughey '24
Will Hilborn '22
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 8 DNF 9 4 6 1 5 1 53 Amelia Traver '24 [1-8]
Lily Johnson '23 [1-4, 7-8]
Eva Carini '27 [5-6]
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 5 7 4 6 3 3 2 5 55 MRP Michael Kovalchik '23 [1-8]
Lena Clark '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Owen Watkins '30 [3-4, 7-8]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 3 8 6 7 10 9 10 12 65 Olivia Vink '23
Joshua Hacker '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 9 6 3 8 11 13 8 8 66 Ben Dornbush '22 [1-8]
Gavin Yonker '24 [1-2]
Alexis Twa '26 [3-8]
Troy High School Troy High School MIXED Red 12 12 8 11 13 7 9 10 82 Diego Kittinger '24 [1-8]
Pascual Noriega '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Nahil Edrisinha '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey 13 9 13 14 17 11 11 9 97 Sydney Porter '24 [1-8]
Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-4]
Griffin Wilcox '25 [5-6]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [7-8]
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 1 10 10 11 10 8 12 DNS DNS 99 Silas Lorenz '23
Emmet Lorenz '25
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples 14 11 12 12 12 14 15 14 104 Marko Nedeljkovic '24
Madeline Martin '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED Green 11 14 14 16 14 16 14 13 112 Ian Phipps '25
Jamie Stewart '27
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 17 13 DNS 13 15 17 12 11 117 Anneke Hackney '25 [1-8]
Andrew Neckermann '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Elsa Westra '26 [3-4]
Bath High School Bath High School Fighting Bees 15 15 15 15 16 15 13 15 119 Cara Falkowski '24
Emily Matko '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 2 16 DNF DNS DNS 9 10 DNS DNS 130 Colton Dubuque '25
Dylan Browning '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 152 Lauren Hinzmann '22
Eva Ottenbreit '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees40140140440470370322
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples40440470370322
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks7027021133
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed401401
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue406406
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey406406702702
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet401401404404
Harbor Springs Sailing TeamHarbor Springs Sailing Team Mixed401401404404703703
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed40240670270211
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed4024027027021133
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed113399
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red7037032288
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears 12288
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears 23399402402
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed 188
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed 299
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Red88
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Green99

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bath High SchoolBath High School Fighting Bees4024027027021133
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Maples7027021133
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools MIXED Seahawks7037032288
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed406406
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue401401404404
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Grey401401404404703703
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet406406702702
Harbor Springs Sailing TeamHarbor Springs Sailing Team Mixed40640670270211
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed40140140440470370322
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed40440470370322
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed2288
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red113399
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears 13399402402
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears 288
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed 199
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed 288
Troy High SchoolTroy High School MIXED Red99
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED Green401401
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bath High School Bath High School Brendan Falkowski '22 Ethan Wicks '25
Fighting Bees Cara Falkowski '24 Emily Matko '22
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Dorian Ferguson '26 Andrew Wehrman '24
MIXED Maples Marko Nedeljkovic '24 Madeline Martin '24
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Michael Mullins '23 Jacob Doll '22
MIXED Seahawks Monika Torkos '23 Nicole Torkos '25
Black River Public School Black River Public School Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-8] Olive Mcgough '27 [1-4, 7-8]
Elsa Westra '26 [5-6]
Mixed Anneke Hackney '25 [1-8] Andrew Neckermann '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Elsa Westra '26 [3-4]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Payden Pittman '24 Kari Taylor '25
GH Blue Olivia Vink '23 Joshua Hacker '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jimmy Souilliere '23 Isley Moshier '25
Grosse Ile - Grey Sydney Porter '24 [1-8] Eva Ottenbreit '22 [1-4]
Griffin Wilcox '25 [5-6]
Lauren Hinzmann '22 [7-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jacob Vasicek '23 Griffin Wilcox '25
Grosse Ile - Scarlet Lauren Hinzmann '22 Eva Ottenbreit '22
Harbor Springs Sailing Team Harbor Springs Sailing Team Maren Matthews '22 Keeley Knapp '22
Mixed Anna Mcaughey '24 Will Hilborn '22
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Greta Traver '23 [1-8] Stella Vantill '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Hanan Lomax '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Mixed Amelia Traver '24 [1-8] Lily Johnson '23 [1-4, 7-8]
Eva Carini '27 [5-6]
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic Michael Cyrul '24 [1-8] Clayton Debryun '26 [1-2, 5-6]
William Quick-Severin '26 [3-4, 7-8]
LansingCatholicMixed Michael Kovalchik '23 [1-8] Lena Clark '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Owen Watkins '30 [3-4, 7-8]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Lila Torresen '25 [1-8] Alexis Twa '26 [1-2]
Gavin Yonker '24 [3-8]
Grey Mixed Ben Dornbush '22 [1-8] Gavin Yonker '24 [1-2]
Alexis Twa '26 [3-8]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Caroline Henry '23 Andrew Twa '24
Red Nyle Eggert '24 Ryan Bonney '24
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School John Norland '23 Jack Hirsh '23
Bears 1 Silas Lorenz '23 Emmet Lorenz '25
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bergen Fischer '25 Elizabeth Shaw '25
Bears 2 Colton Dubuque '25 Dylan Browning '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Grant Miller '24 Daniel Kotsekon '26
TCC Mixed 1 Colin Gordon '22 [1-8] Sophia Barbas '25 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Becky Lechota '25 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Cooper Gerber '26 Anders Lyons '26
TCC Mixed 2 Gabe Maday '22 Holden Trapp '26
Troy High School Troy High School Rodrigo Flores '24 Sophia Worden '23
MIXED Red Diego Kittinger '24 [1-8] Pascual Noriega '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Nahil Edrisinha '26 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jacob Ritter '24 [1, 4-6]
Bella Satterfield '24 [2-3, 7-8]		 Bella Satterfield '24 [1, 4-6]
Jacob Ritter '24 [2-3, 7-8]
MIXED Green Ian Phipps '25 Jamie Stewart '27

Conditions — 11/13/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.2 kn
avg  ·  max 16.3 kn
Gusts to 31.9 kn
From WNW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine6.8 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1011.1 hPa Rain0.06 in Snow0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Spring Lake: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.26 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Spring Lake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Spring Lake: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →