Wooden Shoe Fall Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 4 14 18
2 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 17 7 24
3 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 15 13 28
4 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue 19 21 40
5 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 11 30 41
6 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 32 13 45
7 Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic HS 23 27 50
8 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 29 23 52
9 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 31 32 63
10 Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 39 40 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 1 1 1 1 4 Caitlin Derby '22
Carson Dobb '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 3 4 2 2 11 Jackson Macnaughton '22
Eston Brown '27
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 2 5 3 5 15 Lj Nykamp '25
Jonas Pearson '25
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 7 2 4 4 17 Elizabeth Grin '23
Henry Sippel '22
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue 5 6 5 3 19 Henry Feyen '25
Johnny Hessler '24
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic HS 4 3 9 7 23 Michael Cyrul '24 [1-4]
Clayton Debryun '26 [1-2]
William Quick-Severin '26 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 9 7 7 6 29 Ben Dornbush '22
Joshua Hacker '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 6 9 6 10 31 Kellan Knapp '25
Griffin Wilcox '25
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 8 8 8 8 32 Olivia Vink '23 [1-4]
Kari Taylor '25 [1-2]
Alexis Twa '26 [3-4]
Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 10 10 10 9 39 Brendan Falkowski '22
Ethan Wicks '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 1 1 1 4 7 Ella Towner '23
Noah Sippel '22
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 2 5 5 1 13 Payden Pittman '24
Lila Torresen '25
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 4 4 2 3 13 Matthew Tevelde '26 [1-4]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2]
Anneke Hackney '25 [3-4]
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 5 3 4 2 14 Cameron Bert '26
Andrew Neckermann '22
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue 3 2 9 7 21 Emily Grin '26
Catherine Grin '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 8 6 3 6 23 Andrew Twa '24
Gavin Yonker '24
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic HS 7 9 6 5 27 Logan Miceli '27 [1-4]
Lena Clark '22 [1-2]
Owen Watkins '30 [3-4]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 6 8 7 9 30 Sydney Porter '24
Paige Gilbert '26
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet 9 7 8 8 32 Serafim Dionyssopoulos '23
Jacob Vasicek '23
Bath High School Bath High School Bath Bees 10 10 10 10 40 Cara Falkowski '24 [1-2]
Ethan Wicks '25 [3-4]
Emily Matko '22 [1-2]
Aidan Pearson '22 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Bath Bees1133
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed2244
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue4466
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold3355
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed5577
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED7799
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet6688
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic Lansing Catholic HS881010
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed9911
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed101022

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bath High SchoolBath High School Bath Bees2244
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed3355
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue5577
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold4466
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed6688
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED881010
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet7799
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic Lansing Catholic HS9911
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed101022
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed1133

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1014.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1014.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →