NYISA-NW The Great Pumpkin Regatta Buffalo

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 11 5 16
2 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 3 17 20
3 Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 13 7 20
4 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 16 8 24
5 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 12 22 34
6 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 15 20 35
7 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 16 20 36
8 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 27 16 43
9 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 22 23 45
10 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 32 29 61
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 1 1 1 3 Charlie Marynowski '26
Ian Bren '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 3 6 11 Adelaide Matzky '25
Joelle Blankenship '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 5 2 5 12 Mason Howell '24
Sophie Kimelberg '26
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 4 5 4 13 Juliana Lanz '23
Genevieve Heiermann '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 8 4 3 15 Matt Lefler '24
Andrew Lindboom '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 3 6 7 16 Natalie Dunlap '24
Rachel Rohring '25
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 6 8 2 16 Joe Marynowski '24
Matthew Murad '26
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 7 7 8 22 Natalie Dunlap '24
Nora Ramsdell '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 9 9 9 27 Philipp Meyer '24
Lucy Colburn '24
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders DSQ DSQ 10 32 Thomas Ferguson '23
Matthew Hudi '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 1 2 5 Abigail Ogie '24
Alyssa Dimarco '25
Irondequoit High School Irondequoit High School Eagles 4 2 1 7 Isaac Aymerich '23
Daniel Tarloswki '23
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 1 4 3 8 Ian Bren '25
Andrew Morse '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 7 5 4 16 Aly Dalton '24
Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 3 9 5 17 Matthew Murad '26
Andrew Morse '26
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 5 7 8 20 Nolan Lefler '25
Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 8 3 9 20 Isabella Fukushima '24
Serena Way '26
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 6 6 10 22 Oscar Jorgenson '26
James Hamilton '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 9 8 6 23 Isabella Fukushima '24
Rachel Rohring '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders DSQ DSQ 7 29 Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25
Luke Hales '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1161612
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 215157
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 1121217
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 27718
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles171711
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs181814
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings111113
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 114148
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 2131316
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders8815

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 115157
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2121217
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 17718
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 2171711
Irondequoit High SchoolIrondequoit High School Eagles181814
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs111113
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings14148
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 1131316
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 28815
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders161612

Conditions — 10/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1030.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1030.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Buffalo Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.38 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Buffalo Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →