Grosse Ile High School Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Devils - MIXED 8 8
2 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 21 21
3 Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 27 27
4 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Scarlet - MIXED 28 28
5 Bath High School Bath High School Plan Bee 43 43
6 Bath High School Bath High School Not too shab-Bee 44 44
7 Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 55 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Devils - MIXED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 Gillian Bellard '25 [1-8]
Nicholas Ranka '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Gianna Lagina '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 3 5 2 2 2 2 3 2 21 Jimmy Souilliere '23
Michael Butcher '25
Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed 4 2 3 3 3 4 5 3 27 Blake Glazer '25
Maia Lodise '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Scarlet - MIXED 2 3 4 4 4 5 2 4 28 Sydney Porter '24
Griffin Wilcox '25
Bath High School Bath High School Plan Bee 6 4 7 6 5 6 4 5 43 Cara Falkowski '24
Giulia Battista '23
Bath High School Bath High School Not too shab-Bee 5 7 6 5 6 3 6 6 44 Mitchell Hammond '25
Savana Harte '26
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 7 6 5 DNS DNF 7 7 7 55 Owen Krause '25
Logan Miceli '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bath High SchoolBath High School Not too shab-Bee8882222222222
Bath High SchoolBath High School Plan Bee66666666
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Devils - MIXED22222288888
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED55555555
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Scarlet - MIXED99999999
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed44444444
Okemos High SchoolOkemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed2121212121212121
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bath High School Bath High School Not too shab-Bee Mitchell Hammond '25 Savana Harte '26
Bath High School Bath High School Plan Bee Cara Falkowski '24 Giulia Battista '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Devils - MIXED Gillian Bellard '25 [1-8] Nicholas Ranka '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Gianna Lagina '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED Jimmy Souilliere '23 Michael Butcher '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Scarlet - MIXED Sydney Porter '24 Griffin Wilcox '25
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed Owen Krause '25 Logan Miceli '28
Okemos High School Okemos High School Okemos Puffins Mixed Blake Glazer '25 Maia Lodise '23

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From S (176°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1015.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Grosse Ile Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grosse Ile Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Grosse Ile Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →