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Gulf Coast Fall Brawl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 10 10
2 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 1 18 18
3 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 24 24
4 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 34 34
5 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 37 37
6 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 45 45
7 Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 50 50
8 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 54 54
9 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 65 65
10 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 65 65
11 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 66 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 10 Nate Hartwell '24
Gavin Byrnes '27
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 1 2 1 2 2 1 5 5 18 Coleman Kennedy '25
Waters Norris '28
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 24 Cruz Dabney '26 [1, 3-4]
Aidyn James '25 [2, 5-7]
Aidyn James '25 [1, 3-4]
Cruz Dabney '26 [2, 5-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 4 4 6 9 4 2 7 2 34 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Alexandra Bujan '24
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 11 5 4 6 5 2 4 37 Aidan Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 9 7 7 3 9 4 6 45 Brockton Norris '24
Ferris Hepworth '27
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 6 4 5 11 6 9 9 50 Axel Jackson '26 [1-7]
Ben Klecker '26 [1-2]
Jackson Goffinet '26 [3-7]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 7 8 6 9 8 8 8 54 Karoline Burroughs '26
Emma Harris '27
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 8 9 10 7 7 DNF DNS 65 C.T. Ilgenfritz '23
Brayden Leblanc '23
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 10 11 11 10 10 6 7 65 Fynn Erichson '24
Kade Johnston '26
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 5 10 8 8 11 DNF DNS 66 Fisher Key '26
Anna Christian Moore '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles10101010101010
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing17171717171717
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates 111111111111111
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates 29999999
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red15151515151515
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White16161616161616
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 112121212121212
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 218181818181818
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 314141414141414
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 413131313131313
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 58047804780478047804780478047

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fairhope: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fairhope by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Fairhope: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →