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ISSA Cressy Trophy ILCA 6

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 6 4 8 5 1 2 2 48
Marin Academy Marin Academy Tor Svendsen '23 7 1 3 2 8 2 3 3 2 8 13 3 1 6 11 4 9 6 92
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Hamilton Barclay '23 2 3 1 3 4 8 6 6 4 2 7 1 8 16 1 11 6 12 101
Whittier Christian High School Whittier Christian High School Nicholas Mueller '23 11 9 9 14 10 5 11 2 6 3 9 2 3 1 3 6 4 5 113
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jackson Mcaliley '23 9 8 12 4 7 4 2 5 5 4 3 18 7 5 7 9 5 4 118
Berkeley High School (SC) Berkeley High School (SC) Will Rucker '24 4 5 7 10 1 9 4 7 1 7 5 13 9 4 6 17 1 13 123
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Griggs Diemar '25 6 4 4 8 6 1 5 8 10 10 1 5 6 14 4 8 16 9 125
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Morgan Pinckney '23 3 6 10 6 2 7 10 4 7 5 6 8 2 2 14 15 17 14 138
Ballard High School Ballard High School Dieter Creitz '25 5 11 5 5 9 6 14 10 14 6 8 4 14 7 2 2 3 15 140
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Cal Kinnear '25 8 7 8 7 5 13 12 9 9 9 17 9 5 11 9 13 14 17 182
St. George's School St. George's School Jack Bolton '23 10 15 6 9 11 18 7 11 8 16 10 7 13 18 13 5 7 16 200
Darien High School Darien High School Conrad Straden '24 12 13 13 12 13 12 9 13 12 14 12 17 10 10 10 14 11 7 214
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School James Kopack '24 15 10 11 11 14 14 8 14 16 12 14 12 17 3 16 10 8 10 215
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Owen Kohut '25 13 12 14 13 16 11 13 12 13 11 11 14 16 15 15 7 10 1 217
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Julian Dahiya '24 14 17 17 16 15 10 17 18 11 17 4 15 18 13 8 3 13 8 234
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Richard Pokorny '25 17 16 16 17 17 17 18 17 18 15 15 10 12 12 12 12 15 3 259
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Leila Pfrang '25 16 14 15 15 12 15 15 15 15 13 16 16 11 9 18 16 18 11 260
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Christian Prendergast '24 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 17 18 18 11 15 17 17 18 12 18 299

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Peter Barnard '23Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL18/183.945.64+1.7099th → 99th12.6<1%2.7 / 6.6
2Tor Svendsen '23Marin Academy18/182.724.27+1.5595th → 99th12.01%5.1 / 9.8
3Hamilton Barclay '23Clear Falls High School18/183.724.00+0.2899th → 99th0.521%5.6 / 7.1
4Nicholas Mueller '23Whittier Christian High School18/183.213.82+0.6299th → 99th2.313%6.3 / 8.5
5Jackson Mcaliley '23Ransom Everglades School Raiders 218/183.033.62+0.5998th → 99th1.911%6.6 / 9.0
6Will Rucker '24Berkeley High School (SC)18/183.173.60+0.4399th → 99th1.120%6.8 / 8.6
7Griggs Diemar '25Ransom Everglades School Raiders 118/183.463.65+0.1999th → 99th0.237%6.9 / 7.9
8Morgan Pinckney '23Mater Dei High School18/183.663.29−0.3799th → 99th1.061%7.7 / 7.3
9Dieter Creitz '25Ballard High School18/183.323.35+0.0399th → 99th0.043%7.8 / 8.2
10Cal Kinnear '25The Hotchkiss School18/182.44u2.86+0.4391st → 97th1.241%10.1 / 10.6
11Jack Bolton '23St. George's School18/182.492.38−0.1192nd → 90th0.158%11.1 / 10.5
12Conrad Straden '24Darien High School18/181.442.64+1.1971st → 94th8.224%11.9 / 13.1
13James Kopack '24Donovan Catholic High School18/182.532.41−0.1292nd → 91st0.175%11.9 / 10.2
14Owen Kohut '25Lake Forest High School18/183.052.40−0.6499th → 91st3.594%12.1 / 9.0
15Julian Dahiya '24Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS18/182.291.80−0.4988th → 80th1.785%13.0 / 11.0
16Richard Pokorny '25Point Pleasant Beach High School18/182.341.55−0.7989th → 74th4.697%14.4 / 10.9
17Leila Pfrang '25Hampton Roads Academy18/182.241.82−0.4287th → 80th1.397%14.4 / 11.1
18Christian Prendergast '24Latin School of Chicago18/182.120.47−1.6584th → 36th15.5>99%16.6 / 11.4

Conditions — 10/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1028.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1028.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion University Sailing Center — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion University Sailing Center in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion University Sailing Center by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Old Dominion University Sailing Center: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →