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MDISA SSA/AYC Fleet Race (Tier 2)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 21 14 35
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 47 14 61
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 35 29 64
4 St. John's College High School St. John's College High School St. John's College 21 66 87
5 Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 46 49 95
6 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 45 58 103
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 71 33 104
8 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 46 62 108
9 Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 60 49 109
10 Generals Generals Generals 62 MRP 50 MRP 112 MRP
11 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 52 61 113
12 Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 68 MRP 60 MRP 128 MRP
13 Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 76 71 147
14 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 71 83 154
15 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 83 74 157
16 Dons Dons Dons 73 MRP 104 MRP 177 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
St. John's College High School St. John's College High School St. John's College 3 3 1 1 5 8 21 Jack Guinness '25
Claire Keyes '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 1 2 2 1 9 21 Julia Hlousek '24
Natalie King '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 1 4 7 7 12 4 35 Ryan Brelage '24
Alex Prior '24
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 6 3 13 6 15 45 Ellie Dorman '29
Jakub D'Andrade '26
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 10 16 10 5 3 2 46 Eli Cummins '27 [1, 3]
Amory Smith '26 [2, 4-6]
Amory Smith '26 [1, 3]
Eli Cummins '27 [2, 4-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 12 2 13 16 2 1 46 No Show [1-2, 5-6]
Henry Oaten '26 [3-4]
Austin Williams '23 [1-4]
Henry Oaten '26 [5-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 11 5 4 8 11 47 Douglass Abbott '23
Steven Lumpkins '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 16 5 6 9 4 12 52 Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23
Catherine Kammeier '26
Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 4 7 15 10 DSQ 7 60 Peter Mazzagatti '26
Emma Gaz '24
Generals Generals Generals 5 10 8 3 11 5 62 MRP
Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 14 9 4 8 10 3 68 MRP
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 12 11 12 15 14 71 Sam Somers '25
Robert Mascolo '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 15 13 12 11 7 13 71 Ann Martino '26 [1-6]
Emma Mountford '27 [1-2]
Addison Dewaele '24 [3-4]
Charlotte Ryan '25 [5-6]
Dons Dons Dons 11 8 9 6 13 6 73 MRP
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 13 15 14 15 9 10 76 Jack Sieg '24 [1-6]
Teniola Tobun '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 9 14 16 14 14 16 83 Luke Johnson '25
Deniz Ayhan '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 7 1 1 2 2 14 Charlotte Macdonald '26 [1-6]
Jack Lefever-Farino '25 [1-3]
Lydia Saunders '26 [4-6]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 4 2 3 1 1 14 David Abbott '23
Everett Moulds '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 1 6 6 11 3 29 Noelle Davis '25
Addison Davis '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 4 6 4 8 6 5 33 Max Breidert '24
Ethan Depaola '24
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 6 5 DNF 11 4 6 49 Emmett Nash '28 [1-6]
Ava Kucko '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Brodnax '24 [3-4]
Kennett High School Kennett High School Kennett 7 3 11 5 10 13 49 Nathaniel Wyman '28
Finn Urie '26
Generals Generals Generals 5 8 5 2 3 7 50 MRP
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 11 11 13 12 7 4 58 Myles Riffle '31
Kevin Feldtmose '24
Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 8 2 3 10 5 12 60 MRP
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 9 10 12 9 13 8 61 Henry Meyer '25
Gemma Love '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 15 9 8 13 8 9 62 Andrea Runk '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Rosie Benson '27 [3-4]
Rosie Benson '27 [1-2]
Abigail Burritt '25 [3-6]
St. John's College High School St. John's College High School St. John's College 10 13 10 14 9 10 66 Graeme Finley '25
Paxton Cho '26
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 16 12 9 4 15 15 71 Marco Gessner Pilotto '25
Erez Engler '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 14 14 7 7 16 16 74 William Kessner '23
Sebastian Yurcisin '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 13 16 15 16 12 11 83 Scotia Hopper '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Garrett Siska '23 [3-4]
Addison Dewaele '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Ryan '25 [3-4]
Emma Mountford '27 [5-6]
Dons Dons Dons 12 15 14 15 14 14 104 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers112233
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers223344
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins334455
GreyhoundsGreyhounds Greyhounds445566
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets556688
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers668899
Kennett High SchoolKennett High School Kennett88991010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9910101111
DonsDons Dons101011111212
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals111112121313
St. John's College High SchoolSt. John's College High School St. John's College121213131414
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights141415151616
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131314141515
GeneralsGenerals Generals151516161717
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1616171711
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs17171122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers112233
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers223344
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins334455
GreyhoundsGreyhounds Greyhounds445566
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets556688
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers668899
Kennett High SchoolKennett High School Kennett88991010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9910101111
DonsDons Dons101011111212
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals111112121313
St. John's College High SchoolSt. John's College High School St. John's College121213131414
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights141415151616
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131314141515
GeneralsGenerals Generals151516161717
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1616171711
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs17171122
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 Catherine Kammeier '26
Panthers Henry Meyer '25 Gemma Love '25
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ann Martino '26 [1-6] Emma Mountford '27 [1-2]
Addison Dewaele '24 [3-4]
Charlotte Ryan '25 [5-6]
Cavaliers Scotia Hopper '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Garrett Siska '23 [3-4]		 Addison Dewaele '24 [1-2]
Charlotte Ryan '25 [3-4]
Emma Mountford '27 [5-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School No Show [1-2, 5-6]
Henry Oaten '26 [3-4]		 Austin Williams '23 [1-4]
Henry Oaten '26 [5-6]
Bruins Andrea Runk '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Rosie Benson '27 [3-4]		 Rosie Benson '27 [1-2]
Abigail Burritt '25 [3-6]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Ryan Brelage '24 Alex Prior '24
Hornets Noelle Davis '25 Addison Davis '25
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Eli Cummins '27 [1, 3]
Amory Smith '26 [2, 4-6]		 Amory Smith '26 [1, 3]
Eli Cummins '27 [2, 4-6]
Tigers Emmett Nash '28 [1-6] Ava Kucko '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Brodnax '24 [3-4]
Kennett High School Kennett High School Peter Mazzagatti '26 Emma Gaz '24
Kennett Nathaniel Wyman '28 Finn Urie '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Douglass Abbott '23 Steven Lumpkins '23
Raiders David Abbott '23 Everett Moulds '26
Severn School Severn School Julia Hlousek '24 Natalie King '25
Admirals Charlotte Macdonald '26 [1-6] Jack Lefever-Farino '25 [1-3]
Lydia Saunders '26 [4-6]
St. John's College High School St. John's College High School Jack Guinness '25 Claire Keyes '25
St. John's College Graeme Finley '25 Paxton Cho '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Ellie Dorman '29 Jakub D'Andrade '26
Saints Myles Riffle '31 Kevin Feldtmose '24
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Sam Somers '25 Robert Mascolo '25
Knights Max Breidert '24 Ethan Depaola '24
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Luke Johnson '25 Deniz Ayhan '24
Vikings William Kessner '23 Sebastian Yurcisin '25
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Jack Sieg '24 [1-6] Teniola Tobun '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [3-4]
Bulldogs Marco Gessner Pilotto '25 Erez Engler '25

Conditions — 11/06/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.5 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From S (171°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1022.1 hPa Rain0.26 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Severn Sailing Association & Annapolis Yacht Club: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn Sailing Association & Annapolis Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Severn Sailing Association & Annapolis Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →