MISSA Open Last Chance Qualifier

HostDetroit Country Day/West Bloomfield
Date10/22/2022
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats	174
2	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	188
3	East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity Gold	362
4	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	364
5	Bay High School	Varsity	369
6	East Lansing High School	East Lansing HS	378
7	Troy High School	Troy	382
8	Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity	455
9	Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	478
10	Grosse Ile High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet	508 MRP
11	St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Varsity Blue	530
12	Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	653

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats A	4	2	7	2	3	1	2	2	2	3	15	8	6	1	2	12	72	Adam Starck '25 Joe Lavelle '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils B	3	4	1	1	1	6	1	4	1	4	16	21	12	10	1	3	89	Braden Vogel '23 [1-10, 14-16] Eric Brieden '24 [11-13] Charlie Gmeiner '23 [1-10, 14-16]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils A	5	3	13	7	2	3	3	6	11	11	14	2	3	5	10	1	99	Gavin Webster '24 Colin Hexter '23
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Wildcats B	2	7	5	11	9	12	6	9	5	9	9	3	1	3	6	5	102	Bobby Starck '23 Brady Mayer '25
Bay High School	Varsity A	6	6	6	10	15	7	15	10	4	2	1	6	10	2	11	4	115	Annika Vanderhorst '23 Molly Keane '26
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ A	1	1	2	5	6	2	4	15	19	23	2	11	2	8	12	6	119	Graham Rebain '25 [1-7, 11-16] Liam Dowling '24 [8-10] Liam Dowling '24 [1-7, 11-12, 15-16] Alexander Grabowski '25 [8-9] Gage Hummel '26 [10, 13-14]
Troy High School	Troy A	9	5	3	6	10	4	8	1	14	10	6	5	4	4	15	17	121	Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-16] Dane Greenwood '23 [1-6] Jacob Ritter '24 [7-16]
East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity Gold A	11	20	DSQ	3	7	10	7	7	3	6	8	7	9	6	7	2	138	Ella Towner '23 Emily Grin '26
East Lansing High School	East Lansing HS A	19	10	4	9	24	19	10	3	6	1	5	9	8	16	4	7	154	Michael Cyrul '24 Clayton Debruyn '26
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity A	8	8	8	4	17	8	9	17	9	8	11	4	5	14	18	18	166	Liam Hounsell '23 [1-16] Miles Laker '23 [1-4] Andrew Wiand '25 [5-16]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Varsity Blue A	15	13	15	13	11	23	17	8	13	20	3	19	19	9	5	8	211	Luke Adams '24 Anna Cate Maday '25
Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity B	17	11	11	21	8	14	12	16	12	15	13	12	7	15	14	21	219	Sean Ellison '25 Nate Bacheller '24
East Grand Rapids	EGR Varsity Gold B	7	15	18	8	5	9	5	5	20	21	23	22	14	19	22	11	224	Elizabeth Grin '23 Catherine Grin '26
East Lansing High School	East Lansing HS B	10	9	17	24	13	24	16	14	15	5	19	14	11	7	16	10	224	Michael Kovalchik '23 William Quick-Severin '26
Grosse Ile High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet A	12	14	9	19	4	16	14	13	10	17	7	13	18	22	8	9	225 MRP	Norton Coulibaly '23 Jacob Vasicek '23
Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity A	23	22	16	18	14	5	19	11	7	7	17	15	20	12	17	13	236	Michael Mullins '23 [1-16] Eric Ellison '24 [1-2] Marko Nedeljkovic '24 [3-10] Nasser Awada '23 [11-16]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ B	16	18	12	17	23	18	20	12	17	24	4	1	22	13	13	15	245	Gabe Morreale '24 Quinn Elliott '26
Bay High School	Varsity B	18	16	10	12	20	11	18	20	16	13	10	16	13	20	21	20	254	Kellie Keane '24 James Kelly '24
Troy High School	Troy B	13	21	20	15	12	21	13	21	18	16	18	20	17	17	3	16	261	Monika Torkos '23 [1-6, 10, 13] Dane Greenwood '23 [7-9, 11-12] Nicole Torkos '25 [14-16] Sophia Worden '23 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12] Nicole Torkos '25 [4-6, 9-10, 13] Monika Torkos '23 [14-16]
Grosse Ile High School	Grosse Ile - Scarlet B	14	12	14	16	18	22	11	22	22	14	12	18	16	21	9	22	283 MRP	Anna Mcaughey '24 Serafim Dionyssopoulos '23
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity B	24	23	23	23	16	20	23	23	21	19	21	10	15	18	19	14	312	Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4, 9-16] Miles Laker '23 [5-8] Cameron Rocco '24 [1-2] Andrew Wiand '25 [3-4] Aarush Kapur '25 [5-8] Bryan Lu '25 [9-10] Miles Laker '23 [11-16]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Varsity Blue B	20	17	22	14	22	15	24	24	8	12	24	23	24	24	23	23	319	Tyler Winowiecki '23 [1-14] Sophia Barbas '26 [15-16] Sophia Barbas '26 [1-6, 9-12] Emma Warren '26 [7-8, 13-16]
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black B	21	19	19	22	19	13	21	18	24	18	22	17	21	23	24	24	325	Tommy Taylor '23 Cole Harding '23
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black A	22	24	21	20	21	17	22	19	23	22	20	24	23	11	20	19	328	Isley Moshier '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14] Jack Baird '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16] Trey Harding '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Bay High School Varsity	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	2	2	1	1	24	24	23	23	22	22	21	21	20	20	19	19
East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
East Lansing High School East Lansing HS	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	24	24	23	23	22	22	21	21
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	24	24	23	23
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Troy High School Troy	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Bay High School Varsity	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	19	19	20	20
Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	20	20	19	19	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	19	19	20	20	21	21	22	22
East Lansing High School East Lansing HS	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile - Scarlet	17	17	18	18	19	19	20	20	21	21	22	22	23	23	24	24
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	19	19	20	20	21	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	1	1	2	2
St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue	21	21	22	22	23	23	24	24	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	22	22	21	21	20	20	19	19	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	23	23	24	24	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Troy High School Troy	24	24	23	23	22	22	21	21	20	20	19	19	18	18	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bay High School	Annika Vanderhorst '23	Molly Keane '26
Varsity	Kellie Keane '24	James Kelly '24
Birmingham Public Schools	Michael Mullins '23 [1-16]	Eric Ellison '24 [1-2] Marko Nedeljkovic '24 [3-10] Nasser Awada '23 [11-16]
Varsity	Sean Ellison '25	Nate Bacheller '24
Detroit Country Day School	Liam Hounsell '23 [1-16]	Miles Laker '23 [1-4] Andrew Wiand '25 [5-16]
Varsity	Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4, 9-16] Miles Laker '23 [5-8]	Cameron Rocco '24 [1-2] Andrew Wiand '25 [3-4] Aarush Kapur '25 [5-8] Bryan Lu '25 [9-10] Miles Laker '23 [11-16]
East Grand Rapids	Ella Towner '23	Emily Grin '26
EGR Varsity Gold	Elizabeth Grin '23	Catherine Grin '26
East Lansing High School	Michael Cyrul '24	Clayton Debruyn '26
East Lansing HS	Michael Kovalchik '23	William Quick-Severin '26
Grosse Ile High School	Norton Coulibaly '23	Jacob Vasicek '23
Grosse Ile - Scarlet	Anna Mcaughey '24	Serafim Dionyssopoulos '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Gavin Webster '24	Colin Hexter '23
Blue Devils	Braden Vogel '23 [1-10, 14-16] Eric Brieden '24 [11-13]	Charlie Gmeiner '23 [1-10, 14-16]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	Graham Rebain '25 [1-7, 11-16] Liam Dowling '24 [8-10]	Liam Dowling '24 [1-7, 11-12, 15-16] Alexander Grabowski '25 [8-9] Gage Hummel '26 [10, 13-14]
MUDJ	Gabe Morreale '24	Quinn Elliott '26
St. Francis High School Traverse City	Luke Adams '24	Anna Cate Maday '25
TCSF Varsity Blue	Tyler Winowiecki '23 [1-14] Sophia Barbas '26 [15-16]	Sophia Barbas '26 [1-6, 9-12] Emma Warren '26 [7-8, 13-16]
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH	Adam Starck '25	Joe Lavelle '23
Wildcats	Bobby Starck '23	Brady Mayer '25
Traverse City Central	Isley Moshier '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14] Jack Baird '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16]	Trey Harding '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
TCC Varsity Black	Tommy Taylor '23	Cole Harding '23
Troy High School	Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-16]	Dane Greenwood '23 [1-6] Jacob Ritter '24 [7-16]
Troy	Monika Torkos '23 [1-6, 10, 13] Dane Greenwood '23 [7-9, 11-12] Nicole Torkos '25 [14-16]	Sophia Worden '23 [1-3, 7-8, 11-12] Nicole Torkos '25 [4-6, 9-10, 13] Monika Torkos '23 [14-16]

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1015.3 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.4 kn

avg · max 14.1 kn

Gusts to 23.5 kn

From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1015.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 14 kn · S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield: a favourites’ day (+0.08)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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