Monk Smith B Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 12 12
2 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 26 26
3 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 27 27
4 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Grey 27 27
5 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 28 28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 12 Jeremy Reddoch '23
Jonah Grumme '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 2 2 5 3 4 5 3 2 26 Kade Johnston '26
Landon Newton '26
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White 1 3 4 4 3 4 5 3 27 Ethan Agerton '24
Gavin Byrnes '27
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Grey 4 4 1 5 2 3 4 4 27 Sullivan Stankoski '23
Tomas Christiansen '27
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 5 5 3 1 5 2 2 5 28 Karoline Burroughs '26
Emma Harris '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Grey22222222
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals White11111111
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 133333333
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 244444444
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 355555555

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.33
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.28 ± 0.62)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →