Monk Smith GOQ

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 9 9
2 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 16 16
3 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 23 23
4 Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 34 34
5 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 38 38
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 9 Nate Hartwell '24
Fisher Key '26
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 16 Joe Comer '26 [1-2, 7]
Issac Sprayberry '27 [3-5]
Cruz Dabney '26 [6, 8]
Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 5, 7]
Joe Comer '26 [3-4, 8]
Issac Sprayberry '27 [6]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 23 Aidan Castle '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Ruston Breisacher '24 [3-5, 8]
Lane Burroughs '24 [1-2, 6-7]
C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 [3-5, 8]
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 34 Axel Jackson '26 [1-8]
Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-3, 8]
Ben Klecker '26 [4-7]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 38 Molly Dorman '23
Makinley Schatz '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles1111111111111111
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing1212121212121212
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates1313131313131313
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red1414141414141414
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws1515151515151515
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles Joe Comer '26 [1-2, 7]
Issac Sprayberry '27 [3-5]
Cruz Dabney '26 [6, 8]
Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 5, 7]
Joe Comer '26 [3-4, 8]
Issac Sprayberry '27 [6]
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing Axel Jackson '26 [1-8] Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-3, 8]
Ben Klecker '26 [4-7]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Molly Dorman '23 Makinley Schatz '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws Aidan Castle '25 [1-2, 6-7]
Ruston Breisacher '24 [3-5, 8]
Lane Burroughs '24 [1-2, 6-7]
C.T. Ilgenfritz '23 [3-5, 8]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals Red Nate Hartwell '24 Fisher Key '26

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.65 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →