North Points #1 (JV/Composite)

HostPine Lake Prep
Date10/15/2022
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	18	19	37
2	NB Bears Sailing	NB Bears Sailing	29	20	49
3	Enloe High School	Varsity	30	38	68
4	James Island Charter High School	JV	42	37	79
5	Reynolds	Reynolds	29	62	91
6	Epiphany School of Global Studies	New Bern, NC	67	39	106
7	Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	60	47	107
8	Ben Lippen School	Falcons	71	49	120
9	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	71	52	123

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	3	1	3	1	2	3	1	1	3	18	Petra Humphrey '25 Finn Bell '26
Reynolds	Reynolds	2	4	1	2	3	6	4	2	5	29
NB Bears Sailing	NB Bears Sailing	6	5	2	3	1	4	2	5	1	29
Enloe High School	Varsity	4	2	4	5	4	1	3	3	4	30	Owen O'Rourke '24 Amelia Pare '23
James Island Charter High School	JV	1	3	5	4	5	5	5	4	DNF	42	Jackson Fisher '26 Harrison Martin '23
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	5	6	8	DNF	7	8	8	6	2	60	Lee Wehr '25 Lawson Kievit '27
Epiphany School of Global Studies	New Bern, NC	7	8	6	8	6	7	7	8	DNF	67	Emma French '26 [1-8] Chase Fidgeon '27 [9] Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-8] Andrew Connolly '27 [9]
Ben Lippen School	Falcons	8	7	7	7	8	9	6	9	DNF	71	Garrett Phillips '24 [1-9] Griffin Sorensen '24 [1-4] Anna Grace Williams '24 [5-9]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	DNF	BYE	9	6	9	2	DNF	7	DNF	71	Ray Mcdonald '25 John Dugan '27

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings JV White	1	1	1	1	2	DSQ	2	1	19	Emmy Teer '25 George Adams '25
NB Bears Sailing	NB Bears Sailing	2	3	2	2	1	3	3	4	20
James Island Charter High School	JV	7	2	3	3	3	1	9	9	37	Fletcher Lasher '23 Georgia Montgomery '26
Enloe High School	Varsity	8	5	4	7	7	4	1	2	38	Charlotte Pare '24 [1-8] Xiaoming Cao '24 [1-2, 5-6] Audrey Drabenstott '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Epiphany School of Global Studies	New Bern, NC	3	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	39	Emma French '26 Chase Fidgeon '27
Eugene Ashley High School	Screaming Eagles	4	DNF	8	6	4	2	6	7	47	Trey Medlin '25 Neven Brookins '26
Ben Lippen School	Falcons	6	8	6	4	8	7	4	6	49	Haolin Chen '28 Walker Sorensen '26
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	5	4	7	8	6	6	8	8	52	Macy Stengle '25 Sean Gallagher '26
Reynolds	Reynolds	9	7	9	9	DNS	8	7	3	62

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Ben Lippen School Falcons	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759
Enloe High School Varsity	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Epiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068
James Island Charter High School JV	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401	401	401	401	401	401
NB Bears Sailing NB Bears Sailing	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71
Reynolds Reynolds	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Ben Lippen School Falcons	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768	4768
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759	8759
Enloe High School Varsity	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111
Epiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068	9068
James Island Charter High School JV	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White	401	401	401	401	401	401	401	401
NB Bears Sailing NB Bears Sailing	71	71	71	71	71	71	71	71
Reynolds Reynolds	119	119	119	119	119	119	119	119

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Ben Lippen School	Garrett Phillips '24 [1-9]	Griffin Sorensen '24 [1-4] Anna Grace Williams '24 [5-9]
Falcons	Haolin Chen '28	Walker Sorensen '26
Cape Fear Academy	Ray Mcdonald '25	John Dugan '27
CFA Varsity	Macy Stengle '25	Sean Gallagher '26
Enloe High School	Owen O'Rourke '24	Amelia Pare '23
Varsity	Charlotte Pare '24 [1-8]	Xiaoming Cao '24 [1-2, 5-6] Audrey Drabenstott '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Epiphany School of Global Studies	Emma French '26 [1-8] Chase Fidgeon '27 [9]	Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-8] Andrew Connolly '27 [9]
New Bern, NC	Emma French '26	Chase Fidgeon '27
Eugene Ashley High School	Lee Wehr '25	Lawson Kievit '27
Screaming Eagles	Trey Medlin '25	Neven Brookins '26
James Island Charter High School	Jackson Fisher '26	Harrison Martin '23
JV	Fletcher Lasher '23	Georgia Montgomery '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Petra Humphrey '25	Finn Bell '26
Vikings JV White	Emmy Teer '25	George Adams '25

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 75°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 8.3 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1017.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn · SW 3 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Pine Lake Prep: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.59 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine Lake Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Pine Lake Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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