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Traverse City tier 3 color tour

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 36 36
2 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue 48 48
3 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 59 59
4 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 65 65
5 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms 74 74
6 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 100 100
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 108 108
8 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 123 123
9 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 135 135
10 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold 192 192
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black 192 192
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 1 5 1 2 3 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 3 1 1 5 36 John Scott '25
Keeler Brainerd '28
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue 5 4 5 3 2 2 4 3 2 1 6 2 2 3 2 2 48 Henry Feyen '25
Titus Storrs '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 6 2 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 2 5 3 1 2 3 3 59 Alex Reynolds '24
Simon Hegg '24
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 2 8 3 1 1 3 2 5 3 6 3 5 6 5 6 6 65 Daniel Kotsekon '26
Annabelle Rohe '28
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms 7 7 9 9 4 4 1 1 4 5 1 6 7 4 4 1 74 Frannie Harbold '27
Nolan Stark '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 9 3 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 6 5 4 100 Andrew Roeder '26
Camille Coffin '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 3 1 2 6 7 DNF DNS DNS 7 3 4 4 4 7 DNS DNS 108 Brady Mohr '26
Nicholas Schneider '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 4 6 8 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 DNS 123 Anders Lyons '28
Evan Dockter '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 8 9 6 5 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 DNS DNS 135 Zach Harding '26 [1-16]
Mosie Weir '26 [1-6, 13-16]
Eliot Steiner '27 [7-12]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 192 Holden Trapp '26
John Streit '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 192 Cooper Gerber '26
Grace Vanstratt '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue9999999999999999
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold8888888888888888
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed10101010101010101010101010101010
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms11111111111111111111111111111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed16161616161616161616161616161616
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black12121212121212121212121212121212
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold13131313131313131313131313131313
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC black and gold14141414141414141414141414141414
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC gold and black15151515151515151515151515151515
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed17171717171717171717171717171717
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green18181818181818181818181818181818
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Blue Henry Feyen '25 Titus Storrs '25
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold John Scott '25 Keeler Brainerd '28
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed Daniel Kotsekon '26 Annabelle Rohe '28
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF ms Frannie Harbold '27 Nolan Stark '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed Brady Mohr '26 Nicholas Schneider '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black Andrew Roeder '26 Camille Coffin '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold Zach Harding '26 [1-16] Mosie Weir '26 [1-6, 13-16]
Eliot Steiner '27 [7-12]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC black and gold Holden Trapp '26 John Streit '28
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC gold and black Cooper Gerber '26 Grace Vanstratt '27
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed Anders Lyons '28 Evan Dockter '27
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green Alex Reynolds '24 Simon Hegg '24

Conditions — 10/22/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1008.2 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1008.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Traverse City Centra: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.25 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Traverse City Centra by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Traverse City Centra, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →