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VISA Catholic Varsity Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 14 14
2 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 19 19
3 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 23 23
4 Williamsburg Classical Academy Williamsburg Classical Academy Owls 34 34
5 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 39 39
6 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 40 40
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 14 Angelo Bellecci '25
Chloe Anderson '24
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 3 1 3 2 6 2 1 1 19 Madison Newton '25 [1-2, 6-8]
Caleb Kyle '25 [3-5]
Caleb Kyle '25 [1-2, 6-8]
Madison Newton '25 [3-5]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 2 3 1 1 3 3 3 DNF 23 Kieran Mason '26
Molly Hanson '23
Williamsburg Classical Academy Williamsburg Classical Academy Owls 5 4 5 4 2 6 5 3 34 Gavin Peters '23
Grady Nichols '25
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 4 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 39 Slater Freischlag '24 [1-8]
Megan Allman '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Mikenna Dunlap '24 [3-5, 8]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 4 40 Madison Bivins '25
Aidan Murphy '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons77777777
Heritage High School - VAHeritage High School - VA Heritage - VA1616161616161616
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 11818181818181818
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 21717171717171717
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights22222222
Williamsburg Classical AcademyWilliamsburg Classical Academy Owls11111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons Slater Freischlag '24 [1-8] Megan Allman '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Mikenna Dunlap '24 [3-5, 8]
Heritage High School - VA Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA Angelo Bellecci '25 Chloe Anderson '24
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 Madison Newton '25 [1-2, 6-8]
Caleb Kyle '25 [3-5]		 Caleb Kyle '25 [1-2, 6-8]
Madison Newton '25 [3-5]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 Kieran Mason '26 Molly Hanson '23
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights Madison Bivins '25 Aidan Murphy '25
Williamsburg Classical Academy Williamsburg Classical Academy Owls Gavin Peters '23 Grady Nichols '25

Conditions — 10/08/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From N (4°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1023.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.36 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →