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2023 Fall Brawl

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 19 14 33
2 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 14 20 34
3 UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 9 25 34
4 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 33 10 43
5 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 31 24 55
6 Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 23 54 77
7 Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 42 36 78
8 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 45 39 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 2 1 1 2 1 2 9 Noah Gautier '28 [1-6]
Piper Clark '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Sconyers '27 [3-4]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 1 2 3 3 2 3 14 Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-6]
Emmalia Kuhn '28 [1-2]
Axel Jackson '26 [3-6]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 4 3 4 4 3 1 19 Nate Hartwell '24 [1-6]
Titus Crump '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Katie Bonner '27 [3-4]
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 5 6 2 1 5 4 23 Darby Hayes '26
Elodie Scafidel '26
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 3 4 6 6 6 6 31 Aidan Castle '25
Lane Burroughs '24
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 6 5 5 5 7 5 33 Aidan Mckoin '26 [1-6]
Matthew Brown '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Brockhoff '26 [3-4]
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 7 8 8 8 4 7 42 Lanee Imperato '25 [1-4]
Paul Clement '30 [5-6]
Mj Strickland '25 [1-2]
Paul Clement '30 [3-4]
Sebastian Winstead '27 [5-6]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 8 7 7 7 8 8 45 Landon Newton '26 [1-2]
Jonah Grumme '26 [3-6]
Michael Dawley '26 [1-2]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 3 1 3 1 1 10 David Karcher '26 [1-6]
Dylan Davis '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Brown '26 [3-4]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 5 1 3 1 2 2 14 Anna Christian Moore '26
Fisher Key '26
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 2 5 2 5 4 20 Brockton Norris '24 [1-6]
Ferris Hepworth '27 [1-2]
Lillis Allison '29 [3-4]
Emmalia Kuhn '28 [5-6]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 3 4 2 4 6 5 24 Karoline Burroughs '26
Emma Harris '27
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 4 5 4 6 3 3 25 Mack Purvis '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Cooper Mann '29 [3-4]
Emma Mcgorty '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Piper Clark '29 [3-4]
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 6 6 6 7 4 7 36 Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-4]
Ben Klecker '26 [5-6]
Dixon Mckenzie '24 [1-2]
Courtney Baker '25 [3-4]
Louise Minto '30 [5-6]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 7 7 7 5 7 6 39 Kade Johnston '26
Tristan Wagner '29
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 54 Darby Hayes '26
Elodie Scafidel '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2020 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Academy of the Sacred HeartAcademy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals9910101111
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing101011111212
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates111112121313
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays121213131515
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals131315151616
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1151516161818
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 21616181899
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity1818991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Academy of the Sacred HeartAcademy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals131315151616
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing151516161818
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates1616181899
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays1818991010
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals9910101111
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1101011111212
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2111112121313
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity121213131515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Darby Hayes '26 Elodie Scafidel '26
Cardinals Darby Hayes '26 Elodie Scafidel '26
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Lanee Imperato '25 [1-4]
Paul Clement '30 [5-6]		 Mj Strickland '25 [1-2]
Paul Clement '30 [3-4]
Sebastian Winstead '27 [5-6]
Bayside Sailing Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-4]
Ben Klecker '26 [5-6]		 Dixon Mckenzie '24 [1-2]
Courtney Baker '25 [3-4]
Louise Minto '30 [5-6]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-6] Emmalia Kuhn '28 [1-2]
Axel Jackson '26 [3-6]
Pirates Brockton Norris '24 [1-6] Ferris Hepworth '27 [1-2]
Lillis Allison '29 [3-4]
Emmalia Kuhn '28 [5-6]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Aidan Mckoin '26 [1-6] Matthew Brown '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Brockhoff '26 [3-4]
Blue Jays David Karcher '26 [1-6] Dylan Davis '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Brown '26 [3-4]
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Aidan Castle '25 Lane Burroughs '24
Rock-A-Chaws 1 Karoline Burroughs '26 Emma Harris '27
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Landon Newton '26 [1-2]
Jonah Grumme '26 [3-6]		 Michael Dawley '26 [1-2]
Rock-A-Chaws 2 Kade Johnston '26 Tristan Wagner '29
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Nate Hartwell '24 [1-6] Titus Crump '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Katie Bonner '27 [3-4]
Cardinals Anna Christian Moore '26 Fisher Key '26
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Noah Gautier '28 [1-6] Piper Clark '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Sconyers '27 [3-4]
Bulldogs - Varsity Mack Purvis '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Cooper Mann '29 [3-4]		 Emma Mcgorty '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Piper Clark '29 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From NNE (12°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.4 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1019.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Michael Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.41 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Michael Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at St. Michael Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →