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The Burke Thomas Trophy - ILCA 6 Boys

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Alexander Turloff '24 1 2 2 1 2 1 4 1 1 4 1 3 2 5 3 33
Ballard High School Ballard High School Dieter Creitz '25 2 4 1 2 1 2 1 3 4 2 3 1 DSQ 1 1 42
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Adam Turloff '24 8 1 7 5 4 3 2 2 5 3 4 2 3 7 2 58
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Sebastien Leroy '27 3 3 3 3 3 6 5 7 6 5 7 4 1 6 4 66
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Nico Konyk '25 4 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 2 6 2 7 5 4 5 71
Columbia High School - WA Columbia High School - WA Leif Hauge '24 5 9 4 6 5 8 3 4 3 1 5 6 4 2 7 72
Olympia High School Olympia High School Liam Taylor '25 6 6 8 7 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 5 8 3 8 95
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Will Peters '25 7 11 9 8 10 10 10 8 8 10 9 8 6 9 6 129
Spring Street International School Spring Street International School Emmett Beadnall '27 13 7 13 9 9 7 9 9 9 8 8 9 7 8 9 134
Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA Patrick Loudermilk '27 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 165
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Elijah Dekker '26 9 8 6 10 8 9 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 170
Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA Angelo Fasulo '27 12 13 12 13 12 13 11 11 11 9 10 10 10 11 12 170
Ballard High School Ballard High School Jackson Maestas '23 10 12 10 12 13 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 9 10 10 181

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  13 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Alexander Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 215/152.423.81+1.3991st → 99th6.63%2.2 / 4.6
2Dieter Creitz '25Ballard High School Beavers 115/153.303.98+0.6899th → 99th1.536%2.8 / 3.3
3Adam Turloff '24Bainbridge High School Spartans 115/151.812.39+0.5880th → 91st1.515%3.9 / 5.5
4Sebastien Leroy '27Mercer Island High School15/151.67u2.14+0.4877th → 85th1.121%4.4 / 5.8
5Nico Konyk '25Gig Harbor High School15/151.522.01+0.4974th → 83rd1.222%4.7 / 6.1
6Leif Hauge '24Columbia High School - WA15/151.711.85+0.1378th → 81st0.130%4.8 / 5.8
7Liam Taylor '25Olympia High School15/150.721.26+0.5446th → 66th1.426%6.3 / 7.5
8Will Peters '25Anacortes High School15/150.380.19−0.1933rd → 27th0.262%8.6 / 8.1
9Emmett Beadnall '27Spring Street International School15/150.19-0.16−0.3527th → 17th0.661%8.9 / 8.4
10Patrick Loudermilk '27Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA 215/15-0.06u-1.62−1.5620th → 1st11.492%11.0 / 8.9
11Angelo Fasulo '27Unregistered-NWISA Unregistered-NWISA 115/15-0.68-1.56−0.888th → 1st3.486%11.3 / 9.8
11Elijah Dekker '26Central Kitsap High School15/150.240.63+0.3929th → 43rd0.498%11.3 / 8.3
13Jackson Maestas '23Ballard High School Beavers 215/15-0.15-0.79−0.6418th → 6th1.499%12.1 / 9.0

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1014.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →