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MISSA ILCA 6 Boys Cressy Quals

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Owen Kohut '25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Alec Ranker '24 3 4 8 4 4 7 5 35
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Jackson Schwartz '25 4 10 13 6 5 5 3 46
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Nick Crull '26 13 8 18 2 2 3 2 48
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Keegan Chatburn '25 2 3 2 3 OCS 4 10 52
Blake School Blake School Teddy Bower '26 12 6 4 9 8 2 14 55
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School John Lieber '26 16 5 12 13 3 6 8 63
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominik Moncur '25 6 2 9 20 17 14 12 80
Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial Jack Goggins '26 7 13 3 5 OCS 12 15 83
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Connor Coate '25 9 23 6 7 14 15 18 92
St Marys Prep St Marys Prep Jamie Stewart '27 10 25 16 17 7 13 6 94
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Tad Charlot '24 11 20 22 24 9 9 4 99
Dublin Coffman Dublin Coffman Gavin Grundei '25 5 14 27 26 6 10 13 101
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Stonewall Anderson '26 22 24 11 12 13 18 7 107
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Armstrong '25 23 11 20 23 11 11 9 108
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Quinn O'Dell '26 25 17 7 22 12 8 17 108
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Liam Gilin '25 8 7 10 11 DNS DNS DNS 120
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Semo Zitouni '24 26 19 24 14 10 17 11 121
Glenbrook North High School Glenbrook North High School Matthew Ward '27 19 26 21 19 15 16 16 132
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Parker Ziegler '24 21 22 23 10 16 19 DNF 139
Culver Academies Culver Academies Wyatt Miller '24 18 9 19 16 DNS DNS DNS 146
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Matthew Ranker '24 15 12 15 21 DNS DNS DNS 147
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Matthew Tevelde '26 20 18 17 8 DNS DNS DNS 147
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Akhil Marur '27 17 16 14 18 DNS DNS DNS 149
Zeeland High School Zeeland High School Cameron Bert '26 24 21 5 15 DNS DNS DNS 149
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Sean Ellison '25 14 15 26 25 DNS DNS DNS 164
John Hersey High School John Hersey High School Blake Halper '25 27 27 25 27 DNS DNS DNS 190

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  27 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Owen Kohut '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 37/73.378.75++5.3899th → 99th16.0<1%1.0 / 6.0
2Alec Ranker '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 27/71.553.13+1.5974th → 99th4.93%5.0 / 12.2
3Jackson Schwartz '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 17/71.412.71+1.3170th → 95th3.67%6.6 / 12.7
4Nick Crull '26Rocky River High School7/73.112.38−0.7399th → 90th1.655%6.9 / 6.9
5Keegan Chatburn '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 67/72.033.33+1.3083rd → 99th2.827%7.4 / 10.2
6Teddy Bower '26Blake School7/71.602.04+0.4475th → 83rd0.518%7.9 / 11.9
7John Lieber '26Arrowhead High School7/71.962.07+0.1183rd → 84th0.034%9.0 / 10.6
8Dominik Moncur '25Wayzata High School Navy 17/71.230.59−0.6465th → 42nd1.137%11.4 / 13.2
9Jack Goggins '26Catholic Memorial7/71.001.64+0.6458th → 76th0.832%11.9 / 14.2
10Connor Coate '25Olentangy Liberty High School7/70.070.45+0.3924th → 35th0.316%13.1 / 17.7
11Jamie Stewart '27St Marys Prep7/71.100.92−0.1961st → 55th0.146%13.4 / 14.0
12Tad Charlot '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 47/70.99u0.91−0.0858th → 54th0.050%14.1 / 14.3
13Gavin Grundei '25Dublin Coffman7/70.500.29−0.2138th → 30th0.134%14.4 / 16.3
14Stonewall Anderson '26Wayzata High School Navy 27/70.590.39−0.2042nd → 34th0.145%15.3 / 15.8
15Jack Armstrong '25West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 17/71.250.78−0.4765th → 49th0.772%15.4 / 13.4
15Quinn O'Dell '26Oconomowoc High School7/71.460.35−1.1172nd → 32nd4.274%15.4 / 12.7
17Liam Gilin '25West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 27/70.622.40+1.7843rd → 91st3.663%17.1 / 15.5
18Semo Zitouni '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 77/7-0.100.30+0.4019th → 31st0.438%17.3 / 18.3
19Matthew Ward '27Glenbrook North High School7/7-0.190.09+0.2716th → 24th0.249%18.9 / 18.7
20Parker Ziegler '24Mounds Park Academy7/70.15-0.22−0.3726th → 16th0.370%19.9 / 17.6
21Wyatt Miller '24Culver Academies7/70.681.27+0.5845th → 66th0.589%20.9 / 15.5
22Matthew Ranker '24Lake Forest High School Scouts 57/70.731.21+0.4847th → 65th0.491%21.0 / 15.2
22Matthew Tevelde '26West Ottawa High School7/71.551.10−0.4674th → 61st0.499%21.0 / 12.2
24Akhil Marur '27Lycee Francais de Chicago7/70.531.19+0.6539th → 65th0.689%21.3 / 16.1
24Cameron Bert '26Zeeland High School7/70.900.75−0.1554th → 48th0.097%21.3 / 14.8
26Sean Ellison '25Birmingham Public Schools7/70.690.07−0.6245th → 24th0.798%23.4 / 15.6
27Blake Halper '25John Hersey High School7/70.43u-2.67−3.1034th → 1st9.8>99%27.1 / 16.4

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1016.9 hPa Rain0.40 in

What this breeze does at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lake Forest Academy/Lake Forest: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →