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New Orleans Great Oaks Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 1 17 17
2 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 24 24
3 The Willow School The Willow School The Willow School 2 25 25
4 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 27 27
5 Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 30 30
6 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 4 32 32
7 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 2 41 41
8 Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 2 62 62
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 75 75
10 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 4 77 77
11 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 78 78
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 83 83
13 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 3 85 85
14 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 88 88
15 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 106 106
16 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 110 110
17 The Willow School The Willow School The Willow School 1 111 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 1 1 2 1 1 5 1 6 17 Georgia Gibbons '26
Molly Lagarde '24
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2 2 3 4 3 6 2 4 24 Karya Basaraner '24
Doruk Basaraner '27
The Willow School The Willow School The Willow School 2 6 5 2 4 2 3 3 25 Liam Christopher '25
Olivia Mcgowan '28
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 1 4 6 3 6 3 4 1 27 Aidan Mckoin '26
Matthew Brown '26
Academy of the Sacred Heart Academy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals 5 4 6 2 1 5 7 30 Darby Hayes '26
Elodie Scafidel '26
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 4 3 7 5 5 4 6 2 32 Connor Fanberg '26
Harrison Dietz '24
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 2 7 1 7 7 7 7 5 41 Arthur Meade '27
Dylan Davis '24
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 2 9 8 8 8 11 8 10 62 Annelise Cotaya '28
Zoe Mckay '28
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 8 10 13 13 13 9 9 75 Emerson Goodlett '24
Madelyn Oster '24
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 4 17 9 9 11 10 13 8 77 Elinor Reyher '26 [1-7]
Max Gellman '27 [1-3]
Adrienne Prout '27 [4-7]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1 10 12 12 9 8 16 11 78 Caleb Kaiser '25 [1-7]
Jonathan Shi '25 [1-5]
Aidan Johnson '26 [6-7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 11 11 11 12 14 12 12 83 Evie Barras '24
Anna Koveleskie '25
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 3 14 14 10 10 12 10 15 85 Will Patrias '24
Jonathan Brockhoff '26
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 12 13 14 16 9 11 13 88 Estella Holland '26 [1-7]
Emma Pscenicka '26 [1, 4-7]
Kaybree Cushenberry '26 [2-3]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Falcons 3 13 16 16 15 17 15 14 106 Sawyer Villarreal '24 [1-7]
Laura Fisher '27 [1-3]
Zoe Mcdermot '27 [4-7]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 16 15 17 17 15 14 16 110 Alexandra Sanchez '25 [1, 4-7]
Julie Mavor '26 [2-3]
Sarah Hargrave '25 [1-6]
Maggie Lob '26 [7]
The Willow School The Willow School The Willow School 1 15 17 15 14 16 17 17 111 Emma Parks '26
Marigny Gill '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Academy of the Sacred HeartAcademy of the Sacred Heart Cardinals1111111
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 12222222
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 23333333
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 34444444
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Falcons 46666666
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 113131313131313
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 214141414141414
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 315151515151515
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 416161616161616
Mount Carmel AcademyMount Carmel Academy CUBS 117171717171717
Mount Carmel AcademyMount Carmel Academy CUBS 218181818181818
The Willow SchoolThe Willow School The Willow School 17777777
The Willow SchoolThe Willow School The Willow School 28888888
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 19999999
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 210101010101010
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 311111111111111
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 412121212121212

Conditions — 10/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1013.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ursuline Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ursuline Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Ursuline Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →