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MDISA Ryken Tier 3 Fleet race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 13 16 29
2 School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 15 15 30
3 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 23 18 41
4 Gunston Gunston Herons 23 22 45
5 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 15 31 46
6 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 27 27 54
7 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 31 34 65
8 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 34 33 67
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 1 3 3 5 1 13 Samuel Glauner '27
Allie Clark '26
School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 2 5 1 2 5 15 Henry Cummins '27
Arabella Laws-Dunn '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 1 5 1 3 15 No Show
No Show
Gunston Gunston Herons 4 6 4 3 6 23 Justin Mccubbin '25 [1-3]
Caroline Thomas '26 [4-5]
Aiden Filer '23 [1-3]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 8 2 2 4 7 23 Liam Peterson '28
No Show
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 3 4 6 6 8 27 John Wills '25
Ashley Kroeger '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 8 7 7 2 31 C. Aubrey Reese '26
Parker Roy '29
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 6 7 8 DNS 4 34 Michael Groat '27
Bryeden Rapp '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 8 3 2 1 1 15 Louis Smith '27
Adelaide Hankin '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 5 4 3 2 16 Garrett Szymendera '28
Owen Smith '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 1 1 6 DNF 18 Avery Lynch '27
Kelly Morgenstern '27
Gunston Gunston Herons 3 2 5 DNF 3 22 Annabelle Baker '26 [1-4]
Harrison Lavery '26 [5]
Sophia Bernas '25 [1-4]
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 7 6 3 2 DNS 27 Eliana Arteaga '27
Lila Gottenberg '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 4 8 4 DNF 31 Sam Locklair '27
Oliver Stewart '28
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 4 8 7 5 DNF 33 David Turner '26
Sage James '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 7 6 7 DNF 34 Nicholas Kitts '25
William Dennis '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11335
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66882
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights88224
GunstonGunston Herons55771
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Penguins77113

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights33557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets55771
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders77113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights11335
GunstonGunston Herons66882
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Penguins88224

Conditions — 10/14/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1005.5 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From SSE (155°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1005.5 hPa Rain0.47 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.24 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →