SAISA Cressy Qualifier ILCA 6 Male

HostClearwater Central C/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg
Date09/23/2023
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Lucy Beckham High School	James Pine '26	83
2	Lucy Beckham High School	Nathan Pine '26	95
3	Antilles School	Tanner Krygsveld '25	98
4	William T. Dwyer High School	Jake Homberger '27	109
5	Immaculata La Salle High School	David Mateo Coates '27	114
6	Immaculata La Salle High School	Beck Brill '27	142
7	Pine Crest School	Miles Julien '27	151
8	Miami Palmetto Senior High School	Jonathon Schwartz '25	159
9	Clearwater Central Catholic High School	Jan Mistak '25	174
10	Westminster Christian School	Will Barnhart '25	195
11	The Baldwin School of PR	Rogelio Casellas '24	198
12	Hilton Head Preparatory School	Henry Ciszewski '24	199
13	Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	200
14	Melbourne High School	Jackson Bjorklund '25	200
15	Riverview High School	Raphael Ducrey '30	200
16	Antilles School	Robert Richards '25	202
17	Berkeley High School (SC)	Will Rucker '24	202
18	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Marin Redmond '28	209
19	Calvary Christian Academy	Kai Vurno '26	220
20	Gulliver Preparatory School	Alfonso Lanseros '27	230
21	Calvary Christian Academy	Emmett Debs '26	240
22	MAST Academy	Fernando (Alex) Figueroa '24	252
23	Ransom Everglades School	Antonio De Andrade '27	255
24	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Delfina '26	313
25	St. Petersburg High School	Ryder Ellis '27	339
26	Buchholz	Bode Snider '25	353
27	Hillsborough High School	Christopher Shaffer '26	364
28	State College of Florida Collegiate School	Griffin Roberts '27	381
29	Monsignor Edward Pace High School	Matthew Diaz '24	384
30	Gulliver Preparatory School	Dante Garcia '24	385
31	The Classical Academy of Sarasota	Jackson Wilcox '27	391
32	South Fork High School	Belle Falero '26	419
33	St. Petersburg High School	Jad Abedrabbo '26	431

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Lucy Beckham High School	James Pine '26	2	11	1	2	13	2	1	1	21	4	2	6	8	9	83
Lucy Beckham High School	Nathan Pine '26	3	12	5	4	5	14	4	5	15	6	5	14	1	2	95
Antilles School	Tanner Krygsveld '25	5	3	8	1	1	19	12	12	1	7	6	5	7	11	98
William T. Dwyer High School	Jake Homberger '27	6	27	2	7	7	6	14	13	4	5	3	2	12	1	109
Immaculata La Salle High School	David Mateo Coates '27	9	22	3	6	3	18	10	2	9	11	11	3	2	5	114
Immaculata La Salle High School	Beck Brill '27	12	29	13	5	18	8	5	10	3	2	4	20	9	4	142
Pine Crest School	Miles Julien '27	1	OCS	11	13	6	1	9	18	24	12	1	4	4	13	151
Miami Palmetto Senior High School	Jonathon Schwartz '25	11	8	4	16	17	4	7	14	10	20	12	12	16	8	159
Clearwater Central Catholic High School	Jan Mistak '25	19	2	16	14	11	11	16	17	8	16	16	8	14	6	174
Westminster Christian School	Will Barnhart '25	14	7	21	3	14	22	18	21	20	19	18	10	5	3	195
The Baldwin School of PR	Rogelio Casellas '24	16	23	6	12	10	15	19	3	7	18	8	17	19	25	198
Hilton Head Preparatory School	Henry Ciszewski '24	24	16	12	10	12	16	11	23	11	13	7	11	13	20	199
Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	8	14	14	24	20	5	8	7	19	8	15	13	26	19	200
Melbourne High School	Jackson Bjorklund '25	10	18	19	8	8	13	24	6	6	27	13	22	3	23	200
Riverview High School	Raphael Ducrey '30	13	19	15	18	15	10	3	16	18	9	10	7	18	29	200
Antilles School	Robert Richards '25	15	4	18	9	25	24	23	9	2	1	21	15	24	12	202
Berkeley High School (SC)	Will Rucker '24	17	6	24	17	19	17	2	15	12	10	9	23	10	21	202
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Marin Redmond '28	7	9	7	25	4	12	17	19	14	15	OCS	9	20	17	209
Calvary Christian Academy	Kai Vurno '26	20	5	17	20	2	9	13	11	22	17	OCS	18	25	7	220
Gulliver Preparatory School	Alfonso Lanseros '27	OCS	10	9	11	9	7	21	24	23	3	14	19	22	24	230
Calvary Christian Academy	Emmett Debs '26	21	20	25	26	21	3	6	8	17	22	17	27	17	10	240
MAST Academy	Fernando (Alex) Figueroa '24	18	28	10	15	16	20	15	20	13	14	20	16	21	26	252
Ransom Everglades School	Antonio De Andrade '27	26	21	22	23	22	21	26	22	5	21	19	1	11	15	255
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Delfina '26	23	OCS	26	21	26	23	22	25	16	25	24	24	6	18	313
St. Petersburg High School	Ryder Ellis '27	28	17	23	OCS	31	28	25	4	25	30	25	28	27	14	339
Buchholz	Bode Snider '25	25	OCS	33	28	24	25	20	27	26	26	28	26	15	16	353
Hillsborough High School	Christopher Shaffer '26	22	15	31	22	28	31	31	29	30	28	27	25	23	22	364
State College of Florida Collegiate School	Griffin Roberts '27	31	13	32	27	29	26	29	31	27	24	26	30	28	28	381
Monsignor Edward Pace High School	Matthew Diaz '24	29	24	29	30	27	30	27	28	28	23	22	29	31	27	384
Gulliver Preparatory School	Dante Garcia '24	27	OCS	20	OCS	23	27	28	26	29	29	23	21	DNS	30	385
The Classical Academy of Sarasota	Jackson Wilcox '27	4	1	27	19	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	391
South Fork High School	Belle Falero '26	DNF	25	28	29	30	29	30	30	31	31	29	32	30	31	419
St. Petersburg High School	Jad Abedrabbo '26	30	26	30	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	30	31	29	32	431

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 33 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	James Pine '26	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 1	14/14	3.61	4.02	+0.41	99th → 99th	0.8	8%	5.9 / 10.0
2	Nathan Pine '26	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 2	14/14	3.44	3.96	+0.51	99th → 99th	1.3	10%	6.8 / 10.6
3	Tanner Krygsveld '25	Antilles School Hurricanes 2	14/14	2.92	3.89	+0.97	98th → 99th	4.3	8%	7.0 / 12.9
4	Jake Homberger '27	William T. Dwyer High School	14/14	2.92	3.41	+0.49	98th → 99th	1.1	7%	7.8 / 12.7
5	David Mateo Coates '27	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 2	14/14	3.13	3.52	+0.39	99th → 99th	0.8	18%	8.1 / 12.1
6	Beck Brill '27	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 1	14/14	2.73	2.83	+0.10	95th → 96th	0.0	17%	10.1 / 13.6
7	Miles Julien '27	Pine Crest School	14/14	2.25	3.31	+1.06	87th → 99th	4.7	14%	10.8 / 15.9
8	Jonathon Schwartz '25	Miami Palmetto Senior High School	14/14	2.61^u	3.05	+0.43	94th → 99th	1.0	28%	11.4 / 14.2
9	Jan Mistak '25	Clearwater Central Catholic High School	14/14	2.59	2.87	+0.28	93rd → 97th	0.4	36%	12.4 / 14.3
10	Will Barnhart '25	Westminster Christian School	14/14	2.37	2.54	+0.17	89th → 92nd	0.2	39%	13.9 / 15.4
11	Rogelio Casellas '24	The Baldwin School of PR	14/14	2.47	2.49	+0.02	92nd → 92nd	0.0	45%	14.1 / 14.9
12	Henry Ciszewski '24	Hilton Head Preparatory School	14/14	2.21	2.56	+0.35	86th → 92nd	0.7	35%	14.2 / 16.2
13	Alejo Diblasi '25	Antilles School Hurricanes 1	14/14	2.14	2.42	+0.28	85th → 91st	0.4	34%	14.3 / 16.5
13	Jackson Bjorklund '25	Melbourne High School	14/14	2.30	2.32	+0.02	88th → 89th	0.0	41%	14.3 / 15.7
13	Raphael Ducrey '30	Riverview High School	14/14	0.70^u	2.45	+1.75	45th → 91st	12.1	3%	14.3 / 22.9
16	Robert Richards '25	Antilles School Hurricanes 3	14/14	2.17	2.23	+0.06	85th → 87th	0.0	30%	14.4 / 16.4
16	Will Rucker '24	Berkeley High School (SC)	14/14	3.17	2.45	−0.72	99th → 91st	3.5	81%	14.4 / 11.6
18	Marin Redmond '28	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	14/14	2.08	2.61	+0.54	84th → 94th	1.4	38%	14.9 / 16.6
19	Kai Vurno '26	Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac 2	14/14	2.28^u	2.46	+0.18	88th → 91st	0.2	51%	15.7 / 15.9
20	Alfonso Lanseros '27	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 2	14/14	2.07	2.29	+0.22	84th → 88th	0.3	48%	16.4 / 16.8
21	Emmett Debs '26	Calvary Christian Academy Calvary Christian Ac 1	14/14	2.08	1.95	−0.13	84th → 83rd	0.1	53%	17.1 / 16.7
22	Fernando (Alex) Figueroa '24	MAST Academy	14/14	1.46	2.02	+0.56	72nd → 83rd	1.6	36%	18.0 / 19.6
23	Antonio De Andrade '27	Ransom Everglades School	14/14	2.02	1.83	−0.18	83rd → 81st	0.2	59%	18.2 / 17.1
24	Delfina '26	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	14/14	1.47^u	1.50	+0.03	72nd → 73rd	0.0	71%	22.4 / 19.5
25	Ryder Ellis '27	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 2	14/14	1.55	0.68	−0.87	74th → 45th	4.5	86%	24.2 / 19.2
26	Bode Snider '25	Buchholz	14/14	1.07^u	0.69	−0.37	60th → 45th	0.7	81%	25.2 / 21.3
27	Christopher Shaffer '26	Hillsborough High School	14/14	0.90^u	0.38	−0.51	54th → 33rd	1.6	82%	26.0 / 22.2
28	Griffin Roberts '27	State College of Florida Collegiate School	14/14	0.89^u	0.08	−0.81	54th → 24th	3.9	89%	27.2 / 22.1
29	Matthew Diaz '24	Monsignor Edward Pace High School	14/14	0.61	0.22	−0.39	43rd → 28th	0.9	86%	27.4 / 23.2
30	Dante Garcia '24	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 1	14/14	1.24	0.67	−0.57	65th → 45th	1.7	98%	27.5 / 20.7
31	Jackson Wilcox '27	The Classical Academy of Sarasota	14/14	3.02^u	2.22	−0.80	98th → 87th	1.2	>99%	27.9 / 12.5
32	Belle Falero '26	South Fork High School	14/14	0.10	-0.40	−0.50	24th → 13th	1.3	92%	29.9 / 25.2
33	Jad Abedrabbo '26	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 1	14/14	-0.30	-1.79	−1.49	15th → 1st	6.8	92%	30.8 / 26.5

Conditions — 09/23/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

83°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 85°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.4 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From ENE (78°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1012.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Clearwater Central C/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Clearwater Central C/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Clearwater Central C/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Clearwater Central C/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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