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VISA Cox, Catholic, PC JV Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 7 7
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 24 24
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 29 29
4 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 1 30 30
5 York High School York High School Falcons 35 35
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 36 36
7 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 2 40 40
8 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 3 46 46
9 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 53 53
10 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 55 55
11 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 59 59
12 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 66 66
13 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 77 77
14 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 Pierson Teer '27
Brock Miller '28
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 10 2 2 6 1 3 24 Asher Heath '29 [1-6]
Kendall Mcnaughton '30 [1-3]
Soham Patel '28 [4-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 4 9 6 5 3 2 29 Ben Warburton '27 [1-6]
Sylvie Gajdek '30 [1-3]
Preston Chaing '29 [4-6]
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 1 3 5 3 3 5 11 30 Claire Ballard '29
Ryan Mouak '28
York High School York High School Falcons 7 7 4 2 10 5 35 Cooper Simpson '30 [1-6]
Daniel Simpson '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Mapp '29 [3-4]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 9 3 5 4 6 9 36 Nicholas Cromartie '27
Justice Timberlake '25
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 2 6 4 7 8 9 6 40 Liam Brennan '29
Hayden Issler '28
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 3 12 6 9 7 8 4 46 Everett Mattox '29
Rayne Wehrlin '28
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 8 8 10 11 4 12 53 David Murphy '30
Mollie Armentrout '28
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 5 12 8 12 11 7 55 Corrine Todd '28
Phoenix Weaver '27
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 11 10 11 10 7 10 59 Elizabeth Jensen '25
Olivia Jensen '27
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 13 11 12 9 13 8 66 Ethan Kerns '29 [1-6]
Blaze Martin '30 [1-3]
Win Williston '30 [4-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 77 Kaia Deane '28
Rivers Hickey '28
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 14 13 13 DNF 12 13 80 Jackson Raymond '27 [1-6]
Andrew Buyalos '27 [1-4]
Tristan Campbell '27 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1131313131313
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2141414141414
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3151515151515
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons555555
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 1111111
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 2222222
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 3333333
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1777777
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2888888
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 3999999
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1161616161616
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2181818181818
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders111111111111
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons101010101010

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1031.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1031.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →