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Fall Brawl - SEISA East Great Oaks Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 37 20 57
2 UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 25 33 58
3 St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 33 28 61
4 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 33 31 64
5 Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings 49 36 85
6 Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 49 40 89
7 Bay High School (FL) Bay High School (FL) Bay High School 67 44 111
8 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 56 56 112
9 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 34 88 122
10 Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 61 88 149
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 3 2 3 2 7 3 1 4 25 Noah Gautier '28
Alexander Bridges '27
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 1 1 2 5 9 2 2 DNS 33 Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Cruz Dabney '26 [3-4, 8]
Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 7]
Coleman Kennedy '25 [3-4, 8]
Robertson Hackett '30 [5-6]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 4 5 7 3 1 7 4 2 33 Court Salloum '26
Logan Spain '26
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 2 3 1 6 3 5 7 7 34 Aidyn James '25
Nolan James '28
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 6 8 7 2 1 5 3 37 Aidan Castle '25
Karoline Burroughs '26
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings 6 9 5 4 5 9 3 8 49 Alec Ward '26
Cole Rewis '26
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 9 4 9 8 4 8 6 1 49 Lanee Imperato '25 [1-8]
Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-6]
Courtney Baker '25 [7-8]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 8 10 4 10 6 4 9 5 56 Fisher Key '26 [1, 3-4, 8]
Anna Christian Moore '26 [2, 5-7]
Anna Christian Moore '26 [1, 3-4, 8]
Fisher Key '26 [2, 5-7]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 7 7 10 1 8 6 DNS DNS 61 John Harrison '28
Carson Gideons '28
Bay High School (FL) Bay High School (FL) Bay High School 10 8 6 9 10 10 8 6 67 Sachin Desilva '26
Jackson Lee '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 3 3 1 3 2 2 5 1 20 Landon Newton '26 [1-8]
Tristan Wagner '28 [1-2]
Jason Zhang '27 [3-8]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 1 2 4 2 7 4 6 2 28 John Hobbs Beattie '30
Cooper Joachim '30
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 2 1 6 6 1 6 1 8 31 Axel Jackson '26 [1-4]
Emmalia Kuhn '27 [5-6]
Lillis Allison '29 [7-8]
Barron Robinson '27 [1-2]
Ezra Langley '29 [3-4]
Pierce Jones '27 [5-6]
Ferris Hepworth '27 [7-8]
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 7 5 3 1 6 1 7 3 33 Mac Purvis '29 [1-8]
Cooper Mann '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Harrison Bridges '29 [3-4, 7-8]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings 6 7 2 7 3 3 4 4 36 Skye Dwyer '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Tilly Brumit '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Isabelle Castillo '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Caden Bell '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing 5 4 7 4 5 5 3 7 40 Ben Klecker '26 [1-8]
Courtney Baker '25 [1-6]
Jackson Goffinet '26 [7-8]
Bay High School (FL) Bay High School (FL) Bay High School 4 6 5 5 4 7 8 5 44 John Dudinski '27
John Moore '27
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 6 56 Lucy Hartwell '29 [1-8]
Katie Bonner '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Reid Key '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 88 No Show
No Show
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 88 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2020 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bay High School (FL)Bay High School (FL) Bay High School779911111313
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles88101012121414
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing99111113131515
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates1010121214141616
Ft. Walton Beach High SchoolFt. Walton Beach High School Vikings11111313151577
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity16168810101212
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals131315157799
St. Patrick Catholic High SchoolSt. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish14141616881010
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws12121414161688
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity151577991111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bay High School (FL)Bay High School (FL) Bay High School88101012121414
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles99111113131515
Bayside AcademyBayside Academy Bayside Sailing1010121214141616
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates11111313151577
Ft. Walton Beach High SchoolFt. Walton Beach High School Vikings12121414161688
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity779911111313
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals14141616881010
St. Patrick Catholic High SchoolSt. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish151577991111
Saint StanislausSaint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws131315157799
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity16168810101212
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bay High School (FL) Bay High School (FL) Sachin Desilva '26 Jackson Lee '27
Bay High School John Dudinski '27 John Moore '27
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Aidyn James '25 Nolan James '28
Eagles No Show No Show
Bayside Academy Bayside Academy Lanee Imperato '25 [1-8] Jackson Goffinet '26 [1-6]
Courtney Baker '25 [7-8]
Bayside Sailing Ben Klecker '26 [1-8] Courtney Baker '25 [1-6]
Jackson Goffinet '26 [7-8]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Cruz Dabney '26 [3-4, 8]		 Cruz Dabney '26 [1-2, 7]
Coleman Kennedy '25 [3-4, 8]
Robertson Hackett '30 [5-6]
Pirates Axel Jackson '26 [1-4]
Emmalia Kuhn '27 [5-6]
Lillis Allison '29 [7-8]		 Barron Robinson '27 [1-2]
Ezra Langley '29 [3-4]
Pierce Jones '27 [5-6]
Ferris Hepworth '27 [7-8]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Alec Ward '26 Cole Rewis '26
Vikings Skye Dwyer '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Tilly Brumit '28 [3-4, 7-8]		 Isabelle Castillo '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Caden Bell '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Niceville High School Niceville High School John Harrison '28 Carson Gideons '28
Varsity No Show No Show
Saint Stanislaus Saint Stanislaus Aidan Castle '25 Karoline Burroughs '26
Rock-A-Chaws Landon Newton '26 [1-8] Tristan Wagner '28 [1-2]
Jason Zhang '27 [3-8]
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Fisher Key '26 [1, 3-4, 8]
Anna Christian Moore '26 [2, 5-7]		 Anna Christian Moore '26 [1, 3-4, 8]
Fisher Key '26 [2, 5-7]
Cardinals Lucy Hartwell '29 [1-8] Katie Bonner '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Reid Key '28 [3-4, 7-8]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Court Salloum '26 Logan Spain '26
Fighting Irish John Hobbs Beattie '30 Cooper Joachim '30
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Noah Gautier '28 Alexander Bridges '27
Bulldogs - Varsity Mac Purvis '29 [1-8] Cooper Mann '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Harrison Bridges '29 [3-4, 7-8]

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1027.4 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From ENE (71°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1027.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Michael Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.45 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Michael Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at St. Michael Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →