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Fall Championships Gallium Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 23 8 31
2 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School /Squalicum 25 12 37
3 Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 15 25 40
4 Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 23 19 42
5 North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 15 49 64
6 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 27 37 64
7 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 43 28 71
8 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 44 31 75
9 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 36 46 82
10 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 29 54 MRP 83 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 1 1 DNF RDG 1 15 Tristian Filyes '28
Ryan Wilkins '27
North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 2 8 1 1 3 15 Cameron Leclair '27
Faye Hervieux '26
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 4 2 3 6 8 23 Avery Lawley '25 [1-2]
Liem Webb Magallanez '27 [3-5]
Tyler Jenne '27 [1-2]
John Tabone '28 [3-5]
Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 8 3 2 4 6 23 Adrian Carlson '25
Zack Jordan '25
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School /Squalicum 7 6 5 2 5 25 Tide Carpenter '28 [1-5]
James Madi '28 [1-2]
Sotiri Lane '27 [3-5]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 5 9 4 5 4 27 Jack Kesler '28
Ryan Parris '27
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 10 7 7 3 2 29 Elias Lawrence '28
Lucien Parsons '27
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3 4 DNS DNS 7 36 Dante Muthee '27 [1-5]
Gavin Schinning '28 [1-2, 5]
No Show [3-4]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 9 10 6 7 DNS 43 Brody Colbert '27
Henry Fournier '28
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 6 5 DNS DNS DNS 44 Evan Yeung '27
Olin Brinkley '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 2 3 1 1 8 Kaisen Olkonen '27 [1-2, 5]
Avery Lawley '25 [3-4]
Lynne Tabone '25 [1-2, 5]
Tyler Jenne '27 [3-4]
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School /Squalicum 2 1 2 4 3 12 Chase Johnson '27 [1-5]
Ben Henniger '28 [1-2]
Emri Vincent '26 [3-4]
Sotiri Lane '27 [5]
Lincoln High School (OR) Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 3 6 1 5 4 19 Elliott Penner '28
Angelo Fasulo '27
Peninsula High School Peninsula High School Seahawks 5 5 7 2 6 25 Martin Wagner '29
Ellyaena Jackson '29
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 6 3 6 8 5 28 Alex Cain '28
William Snyder '27
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 4 8 DNS 6 2 31 Jackson Maestras '27
Berger '28
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 10 9 4 3 DNS 37 Brolin Boelts '26
Lilie Huber '27
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 8 7 9 DNS DNS 46 Dante Muthee '27 [1-5]
Lilly Swackhamer '29 [1-2, 5]
Ossian Merkel '29 [3-4]
North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 9 10 8 DNS DNS 49 Talus Book '27
Siena Kiehl '27
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Gold 7 4 5 7 DNS 54 MRP Carter Strickland '29
Rae Brumbaugh '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School /Squalicum101101101101101
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers77777
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides109109109109109
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish126126126126126
North Thurston High SchoolNorth Thurston High School Rams8484848484
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats100100100100100
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears8383838383
Peninsula High SchoolPeninsula High School Seahawks116116116116116
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Gold1212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School /Squalicum101101101101101
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers77777
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides109109109109109
North Kitsap High SchoolNorth Kitsap High School Dogfish126126126126126
North Thurston High SchoolNorth Thurston High School Rams8484848484
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats100100100100100
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears8383838383
Peninsula High SchoolPeninsula High School Seahawks116116116116116
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Gold1212121212

Conditions — 10/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1013.7 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.1 kn
avg  ·  max 19.3 kn
Gusts to 29.5 kn
From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine1.8 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1013.7 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 18 kn · S 18 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oak Harbor: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.20 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.40 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Oak Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →