Navigate

Kick Off Classic - ILCA 6

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Owen Kohut '25 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 1 16
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Nissa Berman '26 4 1 2 2 2 1 1 4 4 2 23
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Avery Baldwin '25 3 7 4 7 14 4 3 3 1 4 50
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Keegan Chatburn '25 6 8 3 3 1 8 12 8 3 8 60
Oak Park River Forest Oak Park River Forest Jp Crabb '28 12 4 9 6 6 3 4 9 5 3 61
Badger High School Badger High School Oliver Gray '27 11 6 7 4 5 7 5 2 7 11 65
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School William Utz '28 2 3 6 12 7 9 10 7 6 7 69
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Cate Baldwin '28 7 5 10 8 8 13 8 6 14 5 84
Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial Jack Goggins '26 8 12 11 9 10 6 7 5 10 6 84
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Cole Bebeau '27 5 9 5 11 9 11 9 10 13 9 91
Brookfield Academy Brookfield Academy Kai Suh-Pomierski '25 9 11 12 5 12 12 11 11 9 12 104
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Akhil Marur '27 10 10 13 13 4 10 6 12 11 DNS 104
Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial No Show 14 13 8 14 11 5 13 13 12 10 113
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Jeffrey Chang '28 13 14 14 10 13 14 14 14 8 13 127

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  14 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Owen Kohut '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 110/103.515.61+2.0999th → 99th7.8<1%1.6 / 4.1
2Nissa Berman '26Jones College Prep10/102.844.58+1.7496th → 99th6.91%2.3 / 5.2
3Avery Baldwin '25Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 110/103.052.20−0.8599th → 86th2.457%5.0 / 4.9
4Keegan Chatburn '25Lake Forest High School Scouts 210/102.142.16+0.0285th → 85th0.039%6.0 / 6.7
5Jp Crabb '28Oak Park River Forest10/102.402.17−0.2391st → 85th0.254%6.1 / 6.1
6Oliver Gray '27Badger High School10/101.752.06+0.3179th → 83rd0.336%6.5 / 7.4
7William Utz '28Pewaukee High School10/101.951.95+0.0082nd → 82nd0.051%6.9 / 7.0
8Cate Baldwin '28Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 210/101.341.15−0.1968th → 63rd0.154%8.4 / 8.2
8Jack Goggins '26Catholic Memorial10/100.971.56+0.5957th → 74th1.242%8.4 / 8.8
10Cole Bebeau '27Arrowhead High School10/101.011.33+0.3258th → 67th0.457%9.1 / 8.7
11Akhil Marur '27Lycee Francais de Chicago10/100.530.92+0.3939th → 55th0.564%10.4 / 9.6
11Kai Suh-Pomierski '25Brookfield Academy10/100.240.89+0.6629th → 54th1.454%10.4 / 10.1
14Jeffrey Chang '28Lake Forest High School Scouts 310/10-0.18-0.90−0.7217th → 5th1.089%12.7 / 10.8

Conditions — 09/08/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From W (270°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1020.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →