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North Points #2 - Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Cyclones Varsity 24 11 35
2 Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 22 20 42
3 New Bern High School New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing 24 25 49
4 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 30 29 59
5 Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 36 41 77
6 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 44 37 81
7 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 28 61 89
8 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 38 55 93
9 Hough High School Hough High School Huskies 66 40 106
10 Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses 62 44 106
11 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 55 56 111
12 Varsity Varsity Varsity 64 MRP 79 MRP 143 MRP
13 Cary Academy Cary Academy Cary Academy 70 73 143
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 5 1 2 1 6 7 22 Madeleine Harris '25
Jack Lima '27
New Bern High School New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing 4 5 3 8 3 1 24 Graham Foster '26
Maegon Voegtlin '25
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Cyclones Varsity 13 4 1 2 1 3 24 William (Jackson) Shealy '26
Walker Glenn '26
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 7 6 4 3 4 4 28 Gresham Kinard '26
Charlotte Casey '25
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 6 8 5 4 5 2 30 Finn Bell '26
Eleanor Wright '26
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 1 3 6 7 10 9 36 Griffin Frye Mccoy '26 [1-6]
Wade Finger '30 [1-2, 5-6]
Violet Derry '27 [3-4]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 8 2 9 5 8 6 38 Jackson Fisher '26
Leaf Longo '27
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 3 7 11 9 9 5 44 Narayan Schmoyer '26 [1-6]
Zack Massey '28 [1-4]
Grant Gerst '27 [5-6]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 12 9 7 6 11 10 55 Ray Mcdonald '25
Trask Bostic '28
Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses 10 12 8 13 7 12 62 Samuel Sablotsky '26
Mary Pinkston '29
Varsity Varsity Varsity 2 11 DNS BKD 2 8 64 MRP
Hough High School Hough High School Huskies 9 OCS 10 10 12 11 66 Camden Cockrill '28 [1-6]
Barry Kaplan '27 [1-2]
Jacob Nabti '30 [3-6]
Cary Academy Cary Academy Cary Academy 11 10 12 11 13 13 70 Jack Boucher '26
Ava Khoudary '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Cyclones Varsity 2 2 2 2 2 1 11 Thomas Weil '27
Tucker Payne '27
Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 5 4 1 1 7 2 20 Lilianna Harris '27 [1-6]
Caroline Larrabee '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Mccluskey '27 [3-4]
New Bern High School New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing 7 1 4 3 6 4 25 Izzy Humphries '25
Fiona Sommers '26
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 6 3 7 5 7 29 Emmy Teer '25
George Adams '25
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 4 3 9 6 12 3 37 Wesley Bassett '28 [1-6]
Grant Gerst '27 [1-4]
Zack Massey '28 [5-6]
Hough High School Hough High School Huskies 3 9 5 4 10 9 40 Barry Kaplan '27
Connor Wemple '27
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 8 7 6 11 4 5 41 Ryden Jarvis '27 [1-6]
Carter Finger '27 [1-4]
Violet Derry '27 [5-6]
Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses 9 8 10 10 1 6 44 Levi Sablotsky '28
Brian Stambough '26
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity DSQ 5 8 12 3 13 55 Max Rieger '28
Lance Rieger '28
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 10 12 7 9 8 10 56 Max Hammer '27
Macy Stengle '25
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 6 11 11 8 13 12 61 Anna Connolly '26
Jacqueline Casey '27
Cary Academy Cary Academy Cary Academy DNF DNF 12 13 9 11 73 Jacob Delaney '28
Noah Becker '26
Varsity Varsity Varsity 11 10 DNS 5 11 8 79 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity448822
Cary AcademyCary Academy Cary Academy5151111177
Eugene Ashley High SchoolEugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles882233
Hough High SchoolHough High School Huskies1111771212
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity22335252
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity3352521010
VarsityVarsity Varsity77121266
Lucy Beckham High SchoolLucy Beckham High School Bengals1212665353
New Bern High SchoolNew Bern High School NB Bears Sailing5252101055
Philip Simmons High SchoolPhilip Simmons High School Iron Horses66535344
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity1010555151
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Cyclones Varsity53534488
Wando High SchoolWando High School Warriors5551511111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity5151111177
Cary AcademyCary Academy Cary Academy882233
Eugene Ashley High SchoolEugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles1111771212
Hough High SchoolHough High School Huskies22335252
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity77121266
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity1212665353
VarsityVarsity Varsity3352521010
Lucy Beckham High SchoolLucy Beckham High School Bengals5252101055
New Bern High SchoolNew Bern High School NB Bears Sailing66535344
Philip Simmons High SchoolPhilip Simmons High School Iron Horses1010555151
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity53534488
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Cyclones Varsity5551511111
Wando High SchoolWando High School Warriors448822
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Ray Mcdonald '25 Trask Bostic '28
CFA Varsity Max Hammer '27 Macy Stengle '25
Cary Academy Cary Academy Jack Boucher '26 Ava Khoudary '26
Cary Academy Jacob Delaney '28 Noah Becker '26
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Griffin Frye Mccoy '26 [1-6] Wade Finger '30 [1-2, 5-6]
Violet Derry '27 [3-4]
Screaming Eagles Ryden Jarvis '27 [1-6] Carter Finger '27 [1-4]
Violet Derry '27 [5-6]
Hough High School Hough High School Camden Cockrill '28 [1-6] Barry Kaplan '27 [1-2]
Jacob Nabti '30 [3-6]
Huskies Barry Kaplan '27 Connor Wemple '27
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Jackson Fisher '26 Leaf Longo '27
Varsity Max Rieger '28 Lance Rieger '28
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Finn Bell '26 Eleanor Wright '26
Vikings Varsity Emmy Teer '25 George Adams '25
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Gresham Kinard '26 Charlotte Casey '25
Bengals Anna Connolly '26 Jacqueline Casey '27
New Bern High School New Bern High School Graham Foster '26 Maegon Voegtlin '25
NB Bears Sailing Izzy Humphries '25 Fiona Sommers '26
Philip Simmons High School Philip Simmons High School Samuel Sablotsky '26 Mary Pinkston '29
Iron Horses Levi Sablotsky '28 Brian Stambough '26
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Narayan Schmoyer '26 [1-6] Zack Massey '28 [1-4]
Grant Gerst '27 [5-6]
Varsity Wesley Bassett '28 [1-6] Grant Gerst '27 [1-4]
Zack Massey '28 [5-6]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School William (Jackson) Shealy '26 Walker Glenn '26
Cyclones Varsity Thomas Weil '27 Tucker Payne '27
Wando High School Wando High School Madeleine Harris '25 Jack Lima '27
Warriors Lilianna Harris '27 [1-6] Caroline Larrabee '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack Mccluskey '27 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1031.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1031.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Raleigh Charter: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Raleigh Charter by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Raleigh Charter, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →