MDISA St. Marys Ryken LADIEs Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 26 26
2 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 31 31
3 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 46 46
4 Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 60 60
5 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 66 66
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 71 71
7 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 103 103
8 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 104 104
9 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 121 121
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 2 1 2 26 Halsey Carter '26
Aurelea Cerny '30
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 31 Ann Martino '26 [1-14]
Emily Julian '28 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Vika Ferus '27 [5-8, 11-12]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 2 2 2 5 2 1 5 7 4 1 6 5 3 1 46 Maggie Dowling '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Nola Primeaux '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Molly Dowling '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Sarah Ramson '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 5 4 4 3 5 4 6 3 5 5 2 3 5 6 60 Eve Cintron '26 [1-14]
Chloe Cummings '25 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Ha An Do '28 [5-8, 11-12]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 6 5 7 4 5 1 5 7 RDG 4 6 4 4 66 Noelle Davis '25
Addison Davis '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 9 6 4 6 6 4 4 2 4 5 4 6 5 71 Erin Lawlor '26
Ella Chasse '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 9 7 8 8 7 8 8 6 8 6 7 7 7 7 103 Lily Moss '25 [1-14]
Annika Fisher '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Julia Deaton '29 [3-4, 8-14]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 7 5 7 6 9 9 7 9 6 7 8 8 8 8 104 Abigayle Wyman '25 [1-7]
Emerson Stehl '26 [8-14]
Emerson Stehl '26 [1-7]
Ellie Neikrash '29 [8-14]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 8 8 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 DNF DNS 121 Gracen Armsworthy '26 [1-7]
Kendall Tharp '26 [8-14]
Bailey Geisz '27 [1-7]
Victoria Kane '27 [8-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1122334455
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron2233445566
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3344556677
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4455667788
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks5566778899
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs6677889911
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights8899112233
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints7788991122
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans9911223344
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers Ann Martino '26 [1-14] Emily Julian '28 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Vika Ferus '27 [5-8, 11-12]
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron Eve Cintron '26 [1-14] Chloe Cummings '25 [1-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Ha An Do '28 [5-8, 11-12]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins Erin Lawlor '26 Ella Chasse '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets Noelle Davis '25 Addison Davis '25
South River High School South River High School Seahawks Lily Moss '25 [1-14] Annika Fisher '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Julia Deaton '29 [3-4, 8-14]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs Maggie Dowling '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Nola Primeaux '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Molly Dowling '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Sarah Ramson '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints Halsey Carter '26 Aurelea Cerny '30
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights Gracen Armsworthy '26 [1-7]
Kendall Tharp '26 [8-14]
Bailey Geisz '27 [1-7]
Victoria Kane '27 [8-14]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans Abigayle Wyman '25 [1-7]
Emerson Stehl '26 [8-14]
Emerson Stehl '26 [1-7]
Ellie Neikrash '29 [8-14]

Conditions — 10/13/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1010.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.38 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →