VISA Christchurch JV Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 York High School York High School Falcons 1 5 5
2 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 14 14
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 15 15
4 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 23 23
5 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 3 26 26
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 30 30
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 38 38
8 York High School York High School Falcons 3 41 41
9 York High School York High School Falcons 2 44 44
10 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 2 47 47
11 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 1 61 61
12 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 68 MRP 68 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
York High School York High School Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Dylan Thomas '28
Tyler Compton '29
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 2 2 2 4 4 14 Sarah Moore '29
Jack Duggan '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 3 3 3 2 15 Pierson Teer '27
Brock Miller '28
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 3 5 7 2 6 23 Madeline Monteith '29
Daniel Simpson '29
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 3 6 6 4 7 3 26 Claire Ballard '29
Rayne Wehrlin '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 5 4 6 8 7 30 Kaia Deane '28
Rivers Hickey '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 8 10 5 5 10 38 Charlie Bernier '28
Anson Huang '26
York High School York High School Falcons 3 10 7 10 6 8 41 Cooper Simpson '30
Jackson Mapp '29
York High School York High School Falcons 2 7 8 9 9 11 44 Molly-Sue Tremblay '29
Lillian Moreira '29
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 2 9 11 8 10 9 47 Liam Brennan '29
Ryan Mouak '28
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 1 12 12 11 DNS DNS 61 Hayden Issler '28
Everett Mattox '29
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11 9 12 11 5 68 MRP Henry Van Orman '30 [1-5]
Adam Hauselman '30 [1-3]
David Murphy '30 [4-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333333
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 144444
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 255555
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets 366666
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 177777
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 288888
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks99999
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons 11010101010
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons 21111111111
York High SchoolYork High School Falcons 31212121212

Conditions — 09/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.9 kn
avg  ·  max 3.5 kn
Gusts to 8.2 kn
From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1014.8 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Christchurch, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →