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VISA Poquoson Team 2 Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers 57
2 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 74
3 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 79
4 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 81
5 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 115
6 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 138 MRP
7 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights A 2 4 6 1 4 1 18 Dylan Thomas '28
Tyler Compton '28
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors B 7 2 1 3 1 4 18 Caleb Kyle '25
Brooklynn Maranto '28
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers A 1 3 5 2 DSQ 2 28 Sophia Lopez '30
Rozlyn Theriault '29
Tabb High School Tabb High School Tigers B 6 5 4 5 3 6 29 Raquel Theriault '26
Savannah Vancleave '25
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms A 3 12 8 4 2 3 32 Chase Young '28
Piper Cartwright '27
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders A 9 7 3 7 6 7 39 Hunter Walton '25 [1-6]
Akito Leslie '26 [1-3]
Andrew Buyalos '28 [4-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders B 4 9 9 6 7 5 40 Brett Clemmey '27 [1-6]
Hyatt Hadley '29 [1-3]
Aiden Westcott '25 [4-6]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders A 12 10 10 9 5 8 54 Hunter Heckman '26 [1-2, 4-5]
Brandon Skaredoff '27 [3, 6]
Brandon Skaredoff '27 [1-2, 4-5]
Hunter Heckman '26 [3, 6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors A 8 1 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ 56 Kieran Mason '26 [1-6]
Lillian Melzer '28 [1-3]
Tyler Slemp '25 [4-6]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders B 10 13 13 8 8 9 61 Sebastian Rodriguez '25
Matthew Woodard '27
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights B 5 6 7 DNS DNS DNS 63 Madison Bivins '25
Aidan Murphy '25
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons A 14 8 12 DNS 9 DNS 73 Elizabeth Jensen '25
Stephen Utley '27
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons B 11 11 11 DNS DNS DNS 78 Thatcher Elliott '27
Ashlynn Kopaskey '25
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms B 13 14 14 DNS DNS DNS 106 MRP Tyler Slemp '25
Elli Zimmerman '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders333333
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons222222
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors777777
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights111111111111
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms999999
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders555555
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers131313131313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders444444
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors888888
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights121212121212
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms101010101010
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders666666
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Tigers141414141414

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NNE (18°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1020.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Poquoson: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.50 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Poquoson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Poquoson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →