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ILCA 6 Boys - PCISA Single-handed District Champs

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Oscar Parzen '26 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 6 9 3 31
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Gage Christopher '28 3 5 1 4 6 3 8 3 2 8 43
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Kousei Hatter '27 2 1 2 2 5 4 3 15 7 11 52
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Sam Wells '26 10 7 4 1 7 2 1 11 1 9 53
Viewpoint School Viewpoint School Jacob Artof '28 5 6 8 10 10 5 5 1 4 2 56
Pacific Academy Pacific Academy Timothy Liu '28 8 11 13 11 4 6 6 2 5 1 67
Redwood Redwood Beckett Kern '28 13 9 11 9 2 8 4 4 6 7 73
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Wyatt Kelly '26 7 3 5 6 12 11 16 5 8 5 78
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Colin Kennedy '28 4 8 6 12 3 7 13 7 10 12 82
Dos Pueblos Dos Pueblos Emerson Wadell '28 11 10 7 14 13 9 14 8 3 6 95
Pacifica Christian High School Pacifica Christian High School Wilbur Smith '28 6 4 12 8 8 17 11 14 11 10 101
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Dylan Seawards '26 9 16 16 5 11 12 10 12 14 4 109
Las Lomas High School Las Lomas High School Ian Adamson '28 15 12 10 13 14 10 9 9 13 15 120
Dos Pueblos Dos Pueblos Aiden Mcnellis '29 16 14 15 7 15 14 12 10 12 16 131
San Marcos High School San Marcos High School Ryan Wells '26 12 15 14 15 9 13 7 13 16 DNS 134
Redwood Redwood Luke Pialloux '28 14 13 9 17 19 16 19 17 17 18 159
Malibu High School Malibu High School Andy Uznis '26 17 18 18 16 17 18 15 16 15 14 164
Salt Lake Center for Science Education Salt Lake Center for Science Education Emmett Ford '27 19 19 17 18 16 15 18 19 18 13 172
Redwood Redwood Jackson Kurtowicz '28 18 17 19 19 18 19 17 18 19 17 181

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  19 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Oscar Parzen '26Point Loma High School Pointers 110/103.404.60+1.1999th → 99th3.83%3.1 / 6.3
2Gage Christopher '28Mater Dei High School Monarchs 210/102.614.05+1.4494th → 99th5.85%4.3 / 8.4
3Kousei Hatter '27Point Loma High School Pointers 210/102.833.23+0.4096th → 99th0.512%5.2 / 7.7
4Sam Wells '26San Marcos High School Royals 210/102.813.44+0.6396th → 99th1.318%5.3 / 7.8
5Jacob Artof '28Viewpoint School10/103.14u3.45+0.3199th → 99th0.331%5.6 / 7.1
6Timothy Liu '28Pacific Academy10/102.91u2.97+0.0697th → 98th0.040%6.7 / 7.6
7Beckett Kern '28Redwood Giants 210/102.492.88+0.3992nd → 97th0.533%7.3 / 8.7
8Wyatt Kelly '26Point Loma High School Pointers 310/102.652.54−0.1094th → 92nd0.044%7.8 / 8.4
9Colin Kennedy '28Mater Dei High School Monarchs 110/102.702.61−0.0995th → 94th0.053%8.2 / 8.2
10Emerson Wadell '28Dos Pueblos Chargers 110/102.332.25−0.0889th → 87th0.057%9.5 / 9.1
11Wilbur Smith '28Pacifica Christian High School10/102.05u1.98−0.0783rd → 83rd0.055%10.1 / 9.8
12Dylan Seawards '26San Marcos High School Royals 110/102.301.69−0.6288th → 77th1.673%10.9 / 9.2
13Ian Adamson '28Las Lomas High School10/101.271.68+0.4166th → 77th0.652%12.0 / 11.8
14Aiden Mcnellis '29Dos Pueblos Chargers 210/101.551.22−0.3374th → 65th0.477%13.1 / 11.1
15Ryan Wells '26San Marcos High School Royals 310/101.271.47+0.2166th → 72nd0.170%13.4 / 11.9
16Luke Pialloux '28Redwood Giants 310/100.19-0.28−0.4727th → 15th0.673%15.9 / 14.4
17Andy Uznis '26Malibu High School10/100.77u0.20−0.5749th → 27th1.392%16.4 / 13.0
18Emmett Ford '27Salt Lake Center for Science Education10/100.22u-0.69−0.9128th → 8th2.592%17.2 / 14.3
19Jackson Kurtowicz '28Redwood Giants 110/10-0.28-1.00−0.7215th → 4th1.495%18.1 / 15.3

Conditions — 09/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1011.9 hPa

What this breeze does at San Pedro — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at San Pedro in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Pedro by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at San Pedro: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →